Key Highlights
- The S&P 500® was up 2.70% in January, bringing its one-year return to 24.66%.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average® gained 4.70% for the month and was up 16.76% for the one-year period.
- The S&P MidCap 400® increased 3.78% for the month, bringing its one-year return to 18.55%.
- The S&P SmallCap 600® returned 2.85% in January and was up 14.47% for the one-year period.
Market Snapshot
The 500™ continued to set new closing highs (just one for January, compared to four in December), initially struggling to hold its ground but picking up mid-month as earnings came in stronger than expected and the Trump administration started enacting its economic policy quickly. The index posted a broad 2.70% gain for January, after a broad 2.50% decline in December and November’s broad 5.73% gain. January posted gains for 12 of its 20 trading days (9 of 21 last month), while breadth increased significantly and turned strongly positive: 355 up and 148 down, compared with last month’s 54 up and 449 down and November’s 385 up and 118 down. Trading increased 8% over December and was up 14% over January 2024.
The S&P 500 closed at 6,040.53, up 2.70% (2.78% with dividends) from last month’s close of 5,881.63, when it was down 2.50% (-2.38%) from the prior month’s close of 6,032.38 (5.73%, 5.87%). The three-month gain was 5.87% (6.22%), with a one-year gain of 24.66% (26.38%). The 2024 return was up 23.31% (25.02%), the 2023 return was up 24.23% (26.29%) and the 2022 return was down 19.44% (-18.11%). The index was up 78.39% (92.72% with dividends) from its pre-COVID-19 Feb. 19, 2020, closing high.
The year started off with a slight decrease (-0.22%), with the S&P 500 testing the levels following December’s decline (-2.50%), but as of mid-month (Jan. 15, 2025) it was up 0.95% ahead of Trump’s Jan. 20, 2025, inauguration. After the inauguration (markets and banks were closed for a U.S. holiday), markets moved broadly higher, with the S&P 500 breaking above 6,100 for the first time and setting a new closing high (6,118.71); it finished the month with a broad 2.70% gain. The Dow® also posted a broad gain, up 4.70% for the month, but posted no new highs, as it closed the month 1.04% off its Dec. 4, 2024, closing high of 45,014.04.
The S&P 500’s market value increased USD 1.349 trillion for the month (down USD 1.224 trillion last month) to USD 51.154 trillion and was up USD 9.766 trillion for 2024; it was up USD 7.906 trillion for 2023 and down USD 8.224 trillion in 2022.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average set no new closing high in January (compared to 48 in 2024), after setting one in December (45,014.04 closing high and 45,074.63 intraday high), four in November and seven in October and September. For the month, The Dow closed at 44,544.66, up 4.70% (4.78% with dividends) from last month’s close of 42,544.22, when it was down 5.27% (-5.13%) from the the prior month’s close of 44,910.65 (7.54%, 7.74%). For the three-month period, The Dow was up 6.66% (7.10%), with a one-year return of 16.76% (18.93%). The 2024 return was up 12.88% (14.99%), as 2023 was up 13.70% (16.18%) and 2022 posted a decline of 8.78% (-6.86% with dividends).
Gold (USD 2,834, up from last month’s USD 2,638) and crypto (Bitcoin USD 101,630, USD 93,417) also gained, in contrast to oil (USD 73.58, USD 74.80) and interest rates that declined (10-year U.S. Treasury Bond 4.55%, 4.58%), but stayed high (as the U.S. Federal Reserve took no January action with the next cut expected in June). Flows also continued into the U.S. market (including foreign inflows, as the U.S. was seen as a relatively favored investment), which supported equities. Earnings were stronger than expected and were forecast to set a new record in Q4 2024 (and in 2025), while sales were also forecast to set a new record for the quarter (with high margins).
