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U.S. Equities Market Attributes June 2025

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U.S. Equities Market Attributes June 2025

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Howard Silverblatt

Senior Index Analyst, Product Management

S&P Dow Jones Indices

Key Highlights

Index Returns - U.S. Equities June 2025: Exhibit 1

Market Snapshot

Current events—which now include U.S. military action on top of global tariffs and economics—continued to evolve, but the S&P 500 rode with the changes, exhibiting lower volatility and spreads as it continued up (4.96% after last month’s 6.15% rebound following the prior three months of declines, which were cumulatively -7.80%), posting two new closing highs in the month.  Additionally, the Senate and House need to approve a bill by the August recess (note: at this writing, the close of June 30, the Senate is preparing to vote on the bill, as the House, which is not assured of approving it, is set up to vote on an adjusted final Senate version later in the week).  If they do not agree on a bill, the post-recess session brings a host of other issues, including debt and budgets, which again could significantly change the game, as well as the end of the tariff suspension dates and the July 31, 2025, court date to determine if Trump can implement tariffs (with the case most likely being appealed to the Supreme Court).

Then there are earnings (which start July 15 with the big banks), where Q1’s general “we don’t know, but we’ll work through it” attitude likely won’t be sufficient to justify (or hold up multiples for) the expected record earnings for the second half, with an estimated 18% year-over-year increase (which appears to exclude any tariff costs or labor issues).  Add to that the recent changes to employment and costs as housing shows some wear and tear, and the slow summer days of July may not be as easy to trade through.

For the month, The 500™ posted a gain of 4.96% (5.09% with dividends), as volatility declined but remained historically high, after May’s 6.15% gain (6.29%), April’s -0.76% (-0.68%), March’s broad 5.75% decline (-5.63%), February’s -1.42% (-1.30%) and January’s 2.70% gain (2.78%).  For Q2 2025, The 500 was up 10.57% (10.94%).  Year-to-date, it was up 5.50% (6.20%).  For the 12 months ending June 2025, the S&P 500 was up 13.63% (15.16%).  For 2024, the index was up 23.31% (25.02%), while 2023 was up 24.23% (26.29%) and 2022 was down 19.44% (-18.11%).

Breadth for June decreased but stayed strongly positive, as 340 issues were up and 163 were down (May had 347 up and 155 down, April had 168 up and 335 down, March had 152 up and 349 down, and 2024 had 332 up and 169 down).  June posted gains for 13 of its 20 trading days (12 of 21 last month); 3 days moved at least 1% (2 up and 1 down), compared to 4 last month (3 up, with 1 up 3.26%, and 1 down), with 39 moving at least 1% YTD (18 up and 21 down), while 50 moved at least 1% for 2024 (31 up and 19 down).  Nine of the 11 sectors posted gains in June (10 of the 11 were up last month).

The S&P 500’s market value increased USD 2.335 trillion for the month (up USD 2.794 trillion last month) to a record USD 52.501 trillion and was up USD 2.696 trillion YTD; it was up USD 9.766 trillion in 2024, was up USD 7.906 trillion in 2023 and was down USD 8.224 trillion in 2022.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 44,094.77, up 4.32% (4.47% with dividends) from last month’s close of 42,270.07, when it was up 3.94% (4.16%) from the prior month’s close of 40,669.36 (-3.17%, -3.08%).  For the three-month Q2 2025 period, The Dow® was up 4.98% (5.46%), with the YTD period up 3.64% (4.55%) and the one-year period up 12.72% (14.72%).  The 2024 period was up 12.88% (14.99%), as 2023 was up 13.70% (16.18%) and 2022 posted a decline of 8.78% (-6.86%).

Trump held a phone call for 75 minutes with Russian President Putin on June 4, 2025; the main topic of conversation was reportedly the war in Ukraine, with reports saying Putin told Trump that he was obligated to respond to Ukraine’s recent drone attack, as the conflict showed no signs of winding down or ending.

Trump held a 90-minute phone call with Chinese President Xi (June 5, 2025), and the main topic of conversation was reportedly trade and tariffs; the two agreed to continue negotiations, with reports that they would meet at the United Nations General Assembly in New York in September 2025.

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