How We Rate Emerging And Frontier Markets

Emerging and frontier markets are strategically positioned to drive global economic growth through the expansion of their domestic markets.

Emerging and frontier markets will play a crucial role in shaping the global economy and driving growth, contributing approximately 65% of global economic growth by 2035. Frontier markets will play a prominent role in this growth due to their favorable demographics—but face significant challenges from persistently high inflation and political uncertainty.

How We Rate Emerging And Frontier Markets

EM Radar Newsletter

Leveraging our expansive credit coverage, EM Radar spotlights S&P Global Ratings’ authoritative, forward-looking insights on the largest and most relevant emerging markets across the globe in a monthly newsletter.

Monthly Highlights

Solid First-Half Of 2025, But Downside Risks Persist

U.S. tariff uncertainty is set to persist beyond the August 1 deadline, with further delays in implementation possible. Mexico and emerging markets (EMs) in Asia face the highest direct exposure, while other EMs will be indirectly affected through lower investment and potential weakening in global demand.

Stronger-than-expected growth in H1 2025, helped by a small direct impact from U.S. tariffs so far, led us to revise up GDP projections for most EMs. However, the indirect effects—slower global demand and weaker investment stemming from trade uncertainty—are likely to weigh on growth in the second half of the year.

EM credit conditions have held up better than expected, given tariffs having a smaller impact on growth and a weaker dollar, which is attracting capital flows to EMs. We expect credit conditions in EMs to continue to face significant downside risks: tariffs, uncertainty about U.S. trade policy, further escalation in geopolitical risk, rising longterm government yields, and fiscal challenges across several EMs.

EM benchmarks and corporate yields narrowed in June, with an acceleration of corporate downgrades, triggered by the downgrade of Colombia to 'BB' from 'BB+'. Market activity was strong in China, particularly in the financial sector, and solid outside Greater China, yet slower than in May. Country-wise, Turkiye's issuance rebounded, while volumes in Brazil and the Philippines were sluggish in June.

Credit Research & Insights

We deliver forward-looking, actionable insights on market-moving trends and their effects on credit—leveraging our proprietary data, analytical expertise, and cross-discipline approach. Our research includes ratings analyses, risk assessments, and credit market forecasts.

Latin America

Brazilian Infrastructure Credit Quality Can Withstand Rising Debt Service Amid High Interest Rates

Infrastructure

3 Jun 2025

Brazilian Infrastructure Credit Quality Can Withstand Rising Debt Service Amid High Interest Rates

Brazilian infrastructure groups' growing cash generation and steady operating performance should help manage rising debt service costs as interest rates should remain at 14.75% until year-end.

Credit Conditions

Our regional and global Credit Conditions Committees—and the research publications we produce—provide financial market participants around the world with an essential resource for identifying and understanding prevailing and potential credit risks.

EM EMEA

Why Most EMEA Emerging Markets Are Slow To Adopt Bank Recovery And Resolution Plans

Financial Institutions

7 May 2025

Why Most EMEA Emerging Markets Are Slow To Adopt Bank Recovery And Resolution Plans

While many emerging markets were among the first adopters of international regulations on capital and liquidity, most of them are still dragging on the implementation of a resolution regime.

Economic Research

Our economists are responsible for developing the macroeconomic forecasts and risk scenarios used by S&P Global Ratings' analysts during the ratings process, as well as leading key cross-sector and cross-divisional research projects.

EM Asia-Pacific

Vietnam And India Are Key Markets To Watch Outside Of China

Emerging Markets

7 May 2025

Vietnam And India Are Key Markets To Watch Outside Of China

Smartphones and PCs are the most exposed to U.S. tariff risk among tech companies that produce in Asia.

EM+

WAEMU Sovereigns Can Weather Mounting Global Geopolitical And Trade Risks

Sovereigns

31 Mar 2025

WAEMU Sovereigns Can Weather Mounting Global Geopolitical And Trade Risks

Rising global geopolitical tensions and tariffs, uncertainties regarding U.S. policies on the African Growth Opportunity Act (AGOA) and USAID, challenges related to security, climate-related events, as well as volatile commodity prices, imply increasing financial and economic risks to countries on the African continent.

Latest Research

Take a look at all of our latest emerging markets research.