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    Investing in the Future of Mobility

    Learn more about our Global Auto Demand Tracker - January 2021

    Access the Global Auto Demand Tracker that provides up-to-date vehicle sales numbers for the previous month by country and brand.

    FREE Trial

    Join Automotive industry leaders in our 2021 Automotive Forecast Webinar Series

    25 January - 22 November 2021 04:30 PM JST, KST | S&P Global Webinar

    WATCH NOW
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    Impact of COVID-19 on the future of mobility

    The initial stages of the COVID-19 pandemic brought about contradictions to the world at large. While governments around the world scrambled to secure personal protective equipment (PPE) supplies to support medical frontline workers; many car manufacturing plant closures resulted in manufacturers contemplating when they could resume operations despite the majority of FFP3 masks – also required for vehicle paint shops – were reserved for global medical care requirements.

    Restrictive lockdowns imposed by governments to combat the pandemic led to heavily reduced vehicle traffic. This encouraged large parts of the population to embrace active mobility options such as walking or cycling instead of depending on personally owned vehicles.

    The situation could significantly affect the automotive and mobility sectors in the long term. The immediate effects that were observed was reduction in vehicle accidents.

    This created a paradox for the automotive sector as the original equipment supplier (OES)/ replacement component market suffered initially due to less demand for repairing damaged vehicles.

    However, lower vehicle usage also implies that vehicles could potentially last longer and eventually require more maintenance and spare parts.

    According to the British Government:

    75% Traffic reduction during the lockdown

    50% Drop in car insurance claims

    Societal impacts on the future of mobility

    Arguably of greatest significance to the mobility sector could be the “work from home” (WFH) revolution that enabled so many businesses to continue their activities during the COVID-19 pandemic.

    If this becomes more sustained in the mid- to long-term future – which is a big IF – surely it will reduce vehicle miles travelled (VMT)? In most large/ mega cities today most commuters do not drive to their workplaces. Instead, they utilize public transit (PT) modes of transportation as traffic congestion, expensive and scarce parking availability effectively make driving not a viable option for millions of commuters.

    So, will maintained WFH habits reduce vehicle miles travelled? There will be regional variations as seen below:


    United States

    Only a limited number of main cities have viable public transit as an alternative for commuters while vehicle miles travelled could indeed suffer in all other US cities.

    5% Approximate work from home rate prior to COVID-19 pandemic

    50% Increase in work from home rate during the peak of the pandemic

    50% Reduction in overall American gasoline demand during the peak of the pandemic

    Europe

    Selected demographics may decide to leave the dense city for rural areas, as cities are perceived as highly contagious and dangerous.

    The vehicle miles travelled could actually increase in rural areas where vehicle usage is essential for shopping, medical and entertainment purposes.


    China

    Media reports from China suggest that prolonged home isolation measures could lead to higher divorce rates. This could potentially lead to more car sales as a typical ‘one car family’ might now become ‘two families in need of two cars’.

    Of course, this could be countered by increased usage of new mobility solutions instead, given that ride-hailing and car-sharing operators in China experienced relatively quick ‘return to almost normal’ business conditions.

    60-70% Pre-COVID-19 levels of ride-hailing volume reached in May 2021 by Didi Chuxing, China's leading ride-hailing service provider

    A further, and more immediate, potential societal impact of the COVID-19 pandemic centres around the “lock down” measures and the often associated ‘track and trace’ initiatives to try to track and contain the number of infections.

    Could this potentially lead to more regulatory control over people movement and mobility providers for medical tracking and potential restriction purposes?

    Perhaps it could pose an even greater opportunity for selected technology giants looking to exploit further mobility opportunities?

    Other technology companies might be keen to further push artificial intelligence (AI) camera based solutions utilizing light detection and ranging (LiDAR) sensors to enable surveillance tracking of social distancing compliance, possibly helping vehicle manufacturers to limit potential duty-of-care legal liability issues during the re-start of vehicle manufacturing operations.

    Either way, this could present a whole new business opportunity for LiDAR sensors, which might help to cut costs and further the advances of autonomous vehicle (AV) technology.


    MaaS challenges and its future

    The previously booming Mobility as a Service (MaaS) sector – such as ride-hailing or car-sharing — is currently facing its first global crisis.

    The initial impact has been devastating to say the least. Recent Lyft and Uber financial releases suggest trip requests were down by between 75% to 80% respectively. While it is not as bad as the impact on public transit at about 90% decline, it does highlight that the current ‘fear factor’ for MaaS is a major issue that could potentially derail the success story.

    So far consumers around the world have been abstaining from MaaS apps and have been returning to the perceived safety of the personally owned car owing to the COVID-19 situation.

    In our view it is unavoidable that the growing reliance on personally owned cars will continue for the short- to mid-term. Vehicle manufacturers will be keen to exploit this opportunity for perceived safety and cleanliness.

    We can also expect the emergence of new solutions for vehicle interiors that fend off germs (especially for steering wheels, door handles, and high-grade air filters) as these will continue to amplify the safety of personally owned cars.

    Ironically though, these solutions will also become the enablers for MaaS to come back with a new, clean, and safe image until the emergence of a COVID-19 vaccine that could re-energize the MaaS sector.

    However, lately the only ray of light for the MaaS sector has been the growing success of food delivery and bicycle-sharing activities. Hence, the pursuit for the robo-taxi panacea – including for goods delivery – remains a high priority for MaaS providers.


    Electrification technology on track for the pandemic

    Even though the current oil price is in historically low territory, future mobility solutions remain perfectly suited for electrification despite the COVID-19 outbreak.

    The pandemic raised fear of handling liquid fuel pumps to fill up internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. Even in times of exceptionally low oil prices most consumers are still likely to value safety.

    This newfound fear could help to persuade drivers to switch from ICE vehicles to electric vehicles (EV). Drivers can safely ‘refuel’ their electric vehicle at home knowing that no strangers have handled the charger before them.

    Of course, in the short term we do expect some initial setback to EV penetration (depending on geographic region and fuel-efficiency regulation) as the pandemic did increase indebted consumer levels, which challenge EV affordability. Further policy support such as ‘green’ scrappage schemes could be necessary to further address affordability of electric vehicles for the masses.

    Overall, the COVID-19 pandemic has led to improved air quality, less traffic, and more active mobility. So gradually expect more consumers to put EVs on their shopping list in the mid-term by 2030.

    Ironically, one of the beneficiaries of this trend could also include the automotive sector, as the COVID-19 pandemic also exposed the vulnerability of the world’s manufacturing supply chain.

    As electric vehicles typically comprise of significantly fewer components compared with more complex ICE vehicles, it could help to simplify the supply chain.

    Finally, another sector that appears to be affected by COVID-19 is the prospect of autonomous vehicles (AV) in the medium term.

    Paradoxically, instead of AVs transporting people, the 2020 image of AVs are robot-shuttles carrying COVID-19 test samples and/or equipment within a hospital campus: smaller autonomous robots disinfecting offices and metro stations or contactless delivery of essential food supplies.

    These new technology applications were highly visible in Wuhan and other major Chinese cities, where they facilitated people’s lives during the severe pandemic lockdown resulting in very low trust levels among the Chinese people.

    Now that contactless delivery has become critical in times of social distancing, autonomous vehicles seem to have found a more immediate use case that could appeal to a larger business community, but which could delay the originally planned roll-out for AV passenger cars significantly.


    Emerging Automotive Tech Trends

    Over the next two decades, as three main key technologies converge, the global automotive industry is expected to shift significantly to autonomous driving, ride-hailing/car-sharing, and electromobility. Together, they have the ability to build the largest paradigm shift in the automotive industry's 130+ year history, affecting existing business models and disrupting conventional supply chains.

    One of the automotive industry's most impactful and long-term developments is vehicle electrification. Alternative propulsion vehicles are joining OEM product portfolios in order for OEMs to comply with upcoming carbon dioxide regulations and regional emissions goals.

    The automotive industry is moving away from the traditional powertrain, with the long-term aim of completely decarbonizing the vehicle parc.

    Keen to find out the upcoming auto tech trends? Download our Top 10 Auto Tech Trends to Watch for in 2021 report now.

    Download COVID-19’s real possible effects on the Auto/Mobility Industry full infographic

    Join automotive industry leaders in our 2021 Automotive Forecast Webinar Series 25 January - 22 November 2021 04:30 PM JST, KST | S&P Global Webinar
    WATCH NOW
    Watch a replay or join an upcoming automotive event

    Automotive US Brand Performance Review

    February 03 2021 | North America S&P Global will be hosting its inaugural US Brand Performance Review webinar, unveiling the results of a comprehensive brand analysis powered by...
    Learn more

    Around The World: Light Vehicle Sales and Production Webinar- February 2021

    February 18 2021 | Global The Light Vehicle Sales and Production Webinar provides an in-depth view of the world's automotive markets straight from our experts.
    Learn more

    ASEAN | Oceania Auto Market & Production Outlook

    April 26 2021 | Asia Pacific The ASEAN | Oceania Auto Market & Production Outlook from S&P Global provides an in-depth view of the world's automotive markets straight from...
    Learn more
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    Get access to E-mobility Expert - Graham Evans Get exclulsive insights and analysis with our E-mobility Service.
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    Connect with our automotive and mobility experts

    Pawan Kumar Sahu

    Pawan Kumar is a Principal Research Analyst at S&P Global Mobility based in Bangalore, India and responsible for E/E architecture and E/E Co

    View Profile

    Vivek Sharma

    Vivek is a highly motivated, solution-focused, and proactive professional with over 12 years of experience in the automotive industry. Curre

    View Profile

    Ariel Donega

    Ariel is in charge of forecasting sales volumes for Buses and Trucks above 6 tons across the South American region, through the use of a ran

    View Profile

    Yan Zeng

    Yan joined the S&P Auto Dealer Network Planning Team in 2017 and is mainly responsible for network planning services in the Asia Pacific reg

    View Profile

    Naoki Kimura

    Naoki's main responsibilities include research, analysis and forecast on UI/UX and connected car components for Japan/South Korea region. Pr

    View Profile

    Pawan Kumar Sahu

    Pawan Kumar is a Principal Research Analyst at S&P Global Mobility based in Bangalore, India and responsible for E/E architecture and E/E Co

    View Profile

    Vivek Sharma

    Vivek is a highly motivated, solution-focused, and proactive professional with over 12 years of experience in the automotive industry. Curre

    View Profile

    Ariel Donega

    Ariel is in charge of forecasting sales volumes for Buses and Trucks above 6 tons across the South American region, through the use of a ran

    View Profile

    Yan Zeng

    Yan joined the S&P Auto Dealer Network Planning Team in 2017 and is mainly responsible for network planning services in the Asia Pacific reg

    View Profile

    Naoki Kimura

    Naoki's main responsibilities include research, analysis and forecast on UI/UX and connected car components for Japan/South Korea region. Pr

    View Profile

    Pawan Kumar Sahu

    Pawan Kumar is a Principal Research Analyst at S&P Global Mobility based in Bangalore, India and responsible for E/E architecture and E/E Co

    View Profile

    Vivek Sharma

    Vivek is a highly motivated, solution-focused, and proactive professional with over 12 years of experience in the automotive industry. Curre

    View Profile

    Pawan Kumar Sahu

    Pawan Kumar is a Principal Research Analyst at S&P Global Mobility based in Bangalore, India and responsible for E/E architecture and E/E Co

    View Profile

    Vivek Sharma

    Vivek is a highly motivated, solution-focused, and proactive professional with over 12 years of experience in the automotive industry. Curre

    View Profile

    Ariel Donega

    Ariel is in charge of forecasting sales volumes for Buses and Trucks above 6 tons across the South American region, through the use of a ran

    View Profile

    Yan Zeng

    Yan joined the S&P Auto Dealer Network Planning Team in 2017 and is mainly responsible for network planning services in the Asia Pacific reg

    View Profile

    Naoki Kimura

    Naoki's main responsibilities include research, analysis and forecast on UI/UX and connected car components for Japan/South Korea region. Pr

    View Profile
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