Luxury goods companies could face an additional hit to their 2020 earnings as global tourism struggles to revive after weeks of canceled overseas trips and travel restrictions triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Tourism has long been a driving force in the luxury market. Making up about 40% of total luxury spending, it is vital to the fortunes of companies such as Kering SA, owner of Gucci, LVMH Moët Hennessy - Louis Vuitton Société Européenne, owner of Christian Dior, and Compagnie Financière Richemont SA, owner of Cartier. Analysts had expected some rebound in Chinese tourist spending in the third quarter and in global tourism in the fourth quarter. But indications are that neither will bounce back quickly, posing an additional downside risk to luxury companies' earnings and stock market valuations.

According to a UBS survey in April of 4,000 consumers in China, Japan, South Korea and the U.K., about 80% of consumers have no plans to travel in the next 3 to 4 months, which heightens the risk for the luxury sector over the next 12 to 18 months.

"We were expecting more of a pickup," UBS analyst Zuzanna Pusz said in an interview. "So we've had to slightly take down our numbers." On May 13, UBS said it was adjusting earnings expectations, reducing its EPS forecast for 2020 by an average of 5% across the luxury companies it covers.

The pressure on international travel and tourism continues to mount. The United Nation's World Tourism Organization recently published new research, based on data collected as of April 27. It found that 100% of global destinations continued to have restrictions on travel in place, and 72% had completely closed their borders to international tourism. On May 11, the U.K. government announced plans to impose a 14-day quarantine on most travelers arriving in Britain. Experts experts said the plan would dissuade visitors from coming to the U.K. as well as Britons from going abroad, thus dampening any expectations of a "summer bounce."

Luxury players have been badly bruised on both the demand and supply side of their operations as a result of factory closures, store shutdowns and the near-halt in overseas tourism. They have responded by lowering or suspending dividends, cutting executive pay and reducing costs. On May 1, S&P revised LVMH's outlook downward to negative from stable, citing weakening credit metrics on coronavirus-related disruptions and pressure from its plan to buy Tiffany & Co.

Although some countries are now moving to gradually reopen borders, international tourism — and thus luxury purchases by foreign travelers — is at a near standstill. On May 14, market research firm Euromonitor International said global luxury sales were originally forecast to grow 3% to reach over $1 trillion in 2020. But with the pandemic, sales are now expected to tumble 18% in the second quarter alone.

"The market most impacted is Asia-Pacific, with sales in China set to decline by 22% in 2020, amounting to a $68 billion loss, followed by the U.S., with a $52 billion loss in sales in 2020," Euromonitor said. The outlook is also bleak in Italy, France and the U.K Not only key producers of luxury goods, these countries also are luxury-buying hotspots for wealthy global tourists.

Fflur Roberts, head of luxury goods research at Euromonitor, noted in a recent webinar that total tourist spending on personal luxury goods had increased 7% over the past five years. But pandemic-induced travel bans would likely lead to about $76 billion in lost luxury sales for 2020, Roberts said.

Chinese consumers are responsible for roughly a quarter of all tourist spending on luxury goods. UBS expects Chinese tourists to spend 50% less in the third quarter of 2020 and 25% less in the fourth quarter. "We don't expect Chinese tourist consumption to grow in 2020 and only expect it to recover in 2021," UBS analyst Pusz said.

The pandemic could heighten a divide between two kinds of luxury companies — those with gold-plated premium brands, strong balance sheets and strong management, versus those with less prominent brands and weaker balance sheets. Pusz places a handful of companies, including LVMH, Kering, Moncler SpA and Hermès International Société en commandite par actions, in the category of more resilient companies.

"They have a higher exposure to leather goods, which is better positioned to weather the crisis, compared to companies [more exposed to] ready-to-wear clothing, which is subject to discounting," Pusz said. "Coronavirus will make that polarization more pronounced."

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