Warner Media LLC substantially boosted its global subscriber targets for HBO Max/HBO, but many variables, particularly outside the U.S., will impact its ability to reach those upgraded goals.
AT&T Inc.'s content arm now expects to reach 120 million to 150 million HBO Max/HBO subscribers worldwide by the end of 2025, up from its October 2019 forecast of 75 million to 90 million.
Warner Media CEO Jason Kilar, speaking at AT&T's March 12 investor day, estimated that half of the revised total would come internationally. At this stage, the company plans to roll out HBO Max in 39 Latin America and Caribbean countries in late June, followed by debuts in 21 European nations in the second half of the year.
Citing consumer awareness, HBO's existing presence and Warner Media's programming experience in those nations, Kilar is confident that HBO Max's expanded content offering and aggressive pricing will score significant take-up rates.
The growth rates in each specific country could change over the course, he said, adding that it is unclear how ad-supported versions of HBO Max might play internationally. Kilar said research is required on which countries could support a commercial-based version.
Later this year, the company will provide an update on its early Latin America and Europe market results and additional details on its further growth plans.
"We think there's an opportunity to scale to 150 million subscribers by year-end 2025," Kilar said. That total and time frame excludes the U.K., Germany and Italy, where the company has licensing agreements through 2025, and Australia. Those nations represent further upside in the longer term, according to Kilar.
Back in the States, Kilar said it's too early to tell how the subscriber rolls will break down between the current product and the ad-supported video-on-demand version, scheduled to launch in June. He said there are data points indicating that most of Hulu LLC's VOD subscribers have opted for the ad-supported version.
The company has yet to say how much less the ad-supported VOD HBO Max entry will cost compared to the standard product’s $14.99 monthly fee.
Asked about the integration of live sports into HBO Max, Kilar said there are no such plans for 2021. Warner Media's Turner Sports holds rights to MLB, the NBA and the March Madness college basketball tournament.