The rise of the U.S. shale production over the past decade enabled the White House to target Russian energy without the economic blowback that Europeans would face.
The status of the U.S. as a major oil and gas producer also meant its recent ban on Russian fossil fuel imports would likely have limited market impact, even as the boycott marked a new escalation in the economic conflict between the West and Moscow over Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
"It is precisely because Russian supply represents such a modest portion of the U.S. petroleum mix that the U.S. felt comfortable leading the way," Raymond James analysts led by Pavel Molchanov said in a March 14 note to clients. "For European countries that have always been more dependent on Russian supply, an embargo would cause some dislocation, hence the reluctance on the part of Brussels to join Washington in this particular policy."
Russia exports a total of about 7.5 million barrels per day of petroleum products, with crude accounting for about 4.7 million b/d, according to International Energy Agency figures based on 2021. The majority goes to Europe, while China is the biggest importer of Russian petroleum among individual countries.
The U.S. imported about 672,000 b/d of Russian crude and refined products in 2021, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data. In terms of value, the U.S. imported about $1.4 billion worth of Russian petroleum products in 2020, according to data from Panjiva.
By comparison, Germany in 2020 imported about $8 billion in petroleum products, while China — the top importer of Russian crude — imported about $27 billion worth, according to Panjiva.
U.S. imports of Russian gas are even more negligible than petroleum imports.
About 21.4 Bcf of LNG was imported by the U.S. in 2021, all of it from Trinidad and Tobago, according to U.S. Energy Department and S&P Global Market Intelligence supply chain data. The U.S. has not imported any Russian LNG since 2019. That cargo reportedly went to Puerto Rico. A cargo that unloaded in the Boston area in 2018 was first delivered to the U.K. Records also show an import of Russian LNG in Texas in 2017. The vast majority of LNG that the U.S. does import goes to the Northeast, where insufficient pipeline capacity at times creates demand for LNG during peak winter heating season.
The U.S. is expected to become the top exporter of LNG in 2022, but it is not a significant importer because U.S. infrastructure developers more than a decade ago decided to convert LNG import facilities for exports after the shale revolution unlocked vast supplies of gas.
Some U.S. oil and gas industry proponents and lawmakers have raised concerns about policies for energy extraction in federal areas amid high oil prices. However, oil and gas output from federal lands makes up a small portion of national production.
Analysts had predicted the U.S. ban on Russian fossil fuel imports would not result in major price impacts almost as soon as the White House announced it.
The price impacts could amount "to little more than the logistics costs of reshuffling cargoes" and costs associated with the crude grades that some refiners are set up to run, analysts at ClearView Energy Partners told clients recently. The degree of any price spike seemed likely to depend on how much other countries buy cargoes rejected by the U.S. and whether countries use cheaper Russian crude to supplement their existing imports instead of replacing those volumes.
"We would suggest again that it seems unlikely to be the last step, and future iterations could bring greater upside risk to energy prices," Clearview said.
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Panjiva, a supply chain research unit of S&P Global Market Intelligence, a division of S&P Global Inc.