The Russian offensive in Ukraine is likely to result in much human tragedy. The fallout from the conflict is also expected to spread into global supply chains and impact economies in Eastern Europe and beyond. The first-order effects may come from the mounting economic sanctions imposed by the U.S. and other countries on Russia, and widespread disruptions in Ukraine. More than 500,000 Ukrainians have fled the country because of the incursion, according to the United Nations, and logistics will be critical in delivering necessary supplies. Businesses have already been affected by the availability of goods, with some auto manufacturers shutting down plants in the region.

Panjiva data shows that U.S. imports from Ukraine rose 28.7% year over year in the fourth quarter of 2021. From a U.S. economic perspective, disruptions could be felt across all industries, but most U.S. imports from the country are in the metals category, making up 59.7% of the total in 2021. Imports of those metals increased 61.8% year over year in the fourth quarter of 2021, but that growth will likely fall as data during the conflict arrives. Other products Ukraine exported to the U.S. include machinery, organic fats and oils, and mineral products, which accounted for 7.0%, 4.4% and 4.3% of imports by value, respectively.

Eusider SpA is among the companies that import metals from Ukraine, with imports up 66.0% year over year in 2021 to 314,600 tonnes. The shipments mainly consisted of pig iron used to make steel, based on Panjiva data. Other firms that also import iron from the country include Steel Dynamics Inc. and Nucor Corp., whose imports increased 16.0% and 68.1% year over year, respectively.

U.S. imports from Russia are similarly concentrated as Ukraine's, with mineral products making up 59.2% of imports by value in 2021, followed by metals with a 13.4% share. Precious metals represented 10.0% of the total, while chemicals accounted for 7.2%. Imports of mineral products, most of which were fuels, surged 95.9% year over year in the fourth quarter of 2021, but these numbers will likely drop as already-imposed sanctions take effect and consumer pressure builds against Russian products.

Companies in the fuels space, including Valero Energy Corp., Vitol Holding BV and Farringford NV, may feel the impact of restrictions imposed on Russia. Valero imported 17 shipments to the U.S. in the fourth quarter of 2021, up 41.7% year over year — likely representing a reaction to an increase in oil prices last fall — and was associated with 21 shipments in January. Fuel shipments associated with Vitol and Farringford fell 47.8% and 47.6% year over year, respectively, in the fourth quarter of 2021. Vitol was linked to six shipments in January, while Farringford was not associated with any imports for the month.

Eric Oak is a researcher at Panjiva, a business line of S&P Global Market Intelligence, a division of S&P Global Inc. This content does not constitute investment advice, and the views and opinions expressed in this piece are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of S&P Global Market Intelligence. Links are current at the time of publication. S&P Global Market Intelligence is not responsible if those links are unavailable later.