The Progressive Corp. posted a sequential decline in personal auto policy count in its independent agency channel in August, according to an analysis of the company's monthly earnings reports, ending a stretch of continuous expansion that dated back to the start of 2016.
The company's rate of growth in personal vehicle net premiums written as calculated on a trailing-12-months basis also continued to decline, falling short of 6% in August for the first time since February 2016.
Unit growth in Progressive's private auto business may continue to slow as management focuses on achieving combined ratios of 96% or better through rate increases and other means. Thanks to elevated levels of catastrophe losses in August, Progressive's agency and direct personal auto channels both posted combined ratios of 100.4%. It was the third consecutive month in which combined ratios in each of the two channels exceeded 96% in a development that might provide more impetus for corrective pricing actions.
Recent slowing in top-line trends continue
Progressive's expansion in agency auto policies in force as measured by year-over-year increases hit their most recent peak in March at a rate of 12.5%. During a 46-month stretch from September 2017 through June 2021, year-over-year agency auto policy counts increased by 10% or more 44 times.
The sequential decline in August was more meaningful from a symbolic standpoint than from a quantitative perspective at just 0.01%, and it followed a July where sequential growth was essentially flat. Progressive's larger direct-to-consumer auto channel continued to expand on a month-over-month basis, but its year-over-year growth rate in policies in force of 10.6% was its lowest since August 2017.
Personal vehicle net premiums written rose in August by 5% on a year-over-year basis. The trailing-12-month growth rate, which minimizes the impact of fiscal calendar-related noise associated with the company's monthly reporting cadence, had been in the double digits for a 48-month stretch through November 2020.
Lower growth comes as the effects of natural catastrophes and the COVID-19 pandemic have triggered considerable volatility in Progressive's monthly personal auto combined ratios. Its result of 100.4% included 7.2 percentage points associated with catastrophes, suggesting an underlying result of 93.2%. A calendar year actuarial reserve decrease of $37.4 million for the personal vehicle business was incorporated in the August results.
Progressive's July personal vehicle combined ratio was 97.8%, or 96.3% when excluding the effects of catastrophes. Its August 2020 personal vehicle combined ratio was below 90% with and without catastrophe losses, as claims frequency levels remained below historical levels amid pandemic-induced changes in driving patterns.
The unadjusted August 2021 combined ratio was the highest posted by the agency channel since August 2017, a period that included the landfall of Hurricane Harvey. The direct channel's combined ratio hit 102.8% in June.
By contrast, monthly combined ratios fell to as low as the mid-70s in each of the channels in 2020 and did not reach 94% during the year following the declaration of a pandemic.
Competitor pushes for rate
Filings obtained through Sept. 16 by S&P Global Market Intelligence do not show evidence of broad-based rate increases being filed by Progressive. The company did, however, file for mid-single-digit rate increases earlier in the summer in its two largest private auto states, Florida and Texas.
Progressive's management reiterated during an August conference call the goal of growing as fast as possible while maintaining a 96% combined ratio, and President and CEO Tricia Griffith cited adverse severity trends as a driver of the company's need for additional rates in the states where Progressive had submitted filings.
GEICO Corp., which ranks one spot ahead of Progressive as the No. 2 U.S. private auto insurer, has filed for high-single-digit or low-double-digit rate increases in its private auto business in a growing number of states in apparent anticipation of a return to pre-pandemic levels of claims frequency. Market Intelligence recently obtained new GEICO rate filings for hikes in the District of Columbia, Kentucky, Tennessee and Illinois in addition to the states previously identified as markets in which the Berkshire Hathaway Inc. subsidiary has been seeking to raise rates.
Between July 1 and Sept. 16, limited to documents obtained by Market Intelligence, GEICO companies filed to raise rates by at least some amount on books of business with an aggregate annualized written premium of more than $8.4 billion, an amount that represents approximately 23% of the GEICO group's 2020 private auto direct premiums written after adjusting for the impact of one-time COVID-19 premium discounts.
GEICO experienced a 4.9% increase in average premiums per auto policy during the 12-month period ended June 30, according to Berkshire Hathaway's most recent Form 10-Q. Progressive said in its quarterly filing for the same date that rate increases in an average amount of about 5% took effect during the second quarter in 11 states. Aggregate personal auto rate changes, the company said, totaled about 2%.