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Pandemic-battered stock sectors buoy S&P 500 on possible vaccine breakthrough

Stock sectors hit hardest by the pandemic and long bond yields surged Nov. 9 on news of a possible breakthrough in a coronavirus vaccine and Democrat Joe Biden's increasingly clear victory in a closely contested presidential race.

The S&P 500 closed up 1.2% on Nov.9, falling 0.8% below the all-time high set Sept. 2. The large-cap index climbed as high as 3.9% early in the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average settled up nearly 3%, narrowly the previous high, also set Sept. 2, by about 0.2%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the day down about 1.5%.

"Pandemic-proof stocks are likely to underperform as those that have been battered over the last eight months come back into favor," Craig Erlam, a senior market analyst with OANDA, said in a Nov. 9 note. "This means the Nasdaq will likely underperform the other indices after spending most of 2020 massively outperforming."

Equities mostly jumped on news that Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE's investigational coronavirus vaccine was more than 90% effective in preventing infection, according to interim data from a phase 3 trial.

"While there will be some discussion about how many people will take the vaccine, and some consternation that it's a two-dose vaccine that takes 28 days to achieve effectiveness, this is materially positive news for the S&P 500," Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report, wrote in a Nov. 9 note. "Given election clarity and the calendar (holiday's approaching), a run in the S&P 500 to 3900 is not unreasonable." The S&P 500 closed at 3,550.50.

A healthcare analyst called the vaccine announcement a "nearly unmitigated win" for Pfizer, which saw it stock increase about 7.7% on the day.

Seven of the S&P 500's 11 sectors closed up Nov. 9, with energy stocks up more than 14.2% as oil prices surgedjumpedoil prices surged on the vaccine's potential to restore energy demand levels from pandemic lows.

"With the return of flying and driving now in sight I'm hopeful for an imminent re-rating in energy stocks ... many down 60-80% YTD," Eric Nuttall, a partner and senior portfolio manager at Ninepoint Partners, tweeted on Nov. 9.

Diamondback Energy Inc. and Valero Energy Corp. both finished the day up about 31%.

Real estate stocks and bank stocks also soared with EPR Properties, a real estate investment trust that invests in amusement parks, theaters, and ski resort, the top gainer on the day at a 42% increase.

The markets were also boosted by the growing clarity of the presidential election, which news organizations called for Biden on Nov. 7, extending a bull run. The S&P 500 jumped 6.4% from Oct. 30 to Nov. 6. Rolls-Royce Holdings and Carnival Corp. & PLC, which both gained about 41% on the day; Park Hotels & Resorts Inc., which increased 40%; and Sabre Corp., a distribution systems provider for air bookings which also climbed 40%, were among the other big gainers on the day.

The S&P 500's consumer discretionary and information technology sectors, which have largely rallied during the global pandemic, dipped 1.59% and 0.73%, respectively.

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Long U.S. government bond yields on Nov. 9 more than erased last week's fall. The 10-year Treasury yield settled at 0.96%, up 13 basis points from Nov. 6, while the 30-year yield closed at 1.73%, also up 13 points.

"The theory here is will the Fed still not raise rates until 2023," said Andrew Brenner, head of international fixed income at National Alliance Securities. "If the vaccine is real, then the Fed could start to raise rates next year or at least 2022."

Antoine Bouvet, a senior rates strategist with ING, said the vaccine news gave the market "a more optimistic path for growth and inflation as a result," but said issues, such as delays in vaccination distribution, will likely cap the climb in yields.

"This is indeed good news but as often the devil’s in the details," Bouvet said. "Rates could jump some more but I think caution is warranted."

The Dollar Index, which measures the U.S. currency against a basket of six developed-market peers, was up slightly, up 0.62% at 92.80.