The Supply Chain Daily provides a curated overview of Panjiva's research and insights covering global trade policy, the logistics sector, and industrial supply chains and draws from global shipping and freight data.
Myanmar coup leaves Samsonite, L.L.Bean with supply chain choices to make
A military coup in Myanmar raises three challenges for supply chain operators, including the impact on economic activity of military or popular action, sanctions applied by other countries, and brand value issues for buyers of Myanmar's exports.
China, which represented 33.0% of Myanmar's exports in 2019, said it "hopes that all sides can resolve their differences." The U.S. only accounted for 4.4% of exports after relations normalized in 2016, though it also has control of the dollar-denominated payments system. The Biden administration said it "will take action against those responsible" following "an immediate review of our sanction laws and authorities."
U.S. imports from Myanmar are led by luggage and apparel/footwear, which represented 41.3% and 29.9%, respectively, of the total $1.06 billion shipped in the 12 months to Nov. 30, 2020. The leading importer of luggage to the U.S. from Myanmar was Samsonite International SA with 177 twenty-foot equivalent units shipped in the fourth quarter of 2020 after growing 84.5% year over year. The leading clothing importers were L.L.Bean Inc. and H & M Hennes & Mauritz AB (publ) with 177 TEUs and 133 TEUs, respectively, while other buyers include Adidas AG, Primark Ltd and Vera Bradley Inc.
(Panjiva Research - Consumer Discretionary)
Stay-at-home helps, freight costs hinder Stanley Black & Decker
Stanley Black & Decker Inc. reported revenue growth of 18.7% year over year due to a "consumer reconnection with the home & garden," aka stay-at-home spending during the pandemic, as well as new products, beating analysts' expectations by 6.6%.
U.S. seaborne imports of tools linked to the firm rose 121.1% in the fourth quarter of 2020, likely including restocking as well as sales, while growth slowed to 26.5% in the first three weeks of January. CFO Donald Allan expects "some channel inventory rebuild" in the first quarter.
Higher shipping costs are an issue, with CEO James Loree noting the firm has "done a lot of heroic things that have been costly, things like air freight and expediting." The impact of elevated shipping costs could weigh on first-quarter earnings as "we generally lock in our supply agreements 1 to 2 quarters out."
Other tool importers have also seen elevated demand and likely face higher logistics costs too. Total U.S. seaborne imports of tools are up by 40.5% year over year in the first three weeks of January with imports linked to Griffon Corp. and Makita Corp. having grown by 57.9% and 51.3%, respectively, in the same period.
(Panjiva Research - Industrials)
Nintendo shrugs off competition, logistics challenges to deliver higher score
Nintendo Co. Ltd. reported a 9.7% year-over-year increase in revenues in the fiscal third quarter of 2021 (calendar fourth quarter of 2020), beating analysts' estimates by 9.2% and bringing revenue growth for the first nine months of the fiscal year to 37.3%. That came despite competition from new console launches by Microsoft Corp. and Sony Corp. as well as ongoing logistics challenges.
The latter did not prevent a 33.9% year over year increase in U.S. seaborne imports linked to Nintendo in the fourth quarter of 2020 and a further 70.4% surge in the first three weeks of January as the firm prepares for new product launches. Imports linked to Microsoft and Sony's consoles meanwhile rose 70.7% and 72.7%, respectively, in the same period.
(Panjiva Research - Tech. Hardware)
Looking peaky — S&P Global Platts container update, January 2021
This report is based on S&P Global Platts' monthly container market review with additional data-points from Panjiva.
Container shipping rates from North Asia to the U.K. hit an all-time high this month of $10,000/forty-foot equivalent unit, or FEU, after rising 285% since the end of November on elevated demand and equipment imbalances. The practice of shipping only empty containers back to Asia to alleviate logistics issues has already led to regulatory scrutiny in the U.S., Vietnam and elsewhere.
Rising rates are being noted by industrial firms in their fourth-quarter 2020 earnings calls, with continued elevated rates a risk to profits in the first quarter. There is little evidence for canceled bookings due to those higher costs, though some Europe-U.K. flows are being disrupted following the implementation of new customs rules.
Asia to North America West Coast rates fell 8.2% in the first three weeks of the month despite vessel delays in Southern California. Backhaul rates have risen as carriers prioritize returning boxes to Asia as was the case for Europe. The decision by the shipping alliances to cancel 24 sailings after the Lunar New Year to further stabilize the system may leave pent up demand.
While rates fell late in the month they were still up on average, raising bunker excluded rates (a measure of container lines' profitability) on Asia to U.S. West Coast routes by a further 18.5% sequentially in January on average compared to December. BERs on North Asia to Europe routes increased 43.5% on average in January versus December.
(Panjiva Research - Logistics)
Global trade recovery may be more fragile than it appears
U.S. manufacturing continued to expand in January, based on the latest Institute for Supply Management survey, though there are challenges. The ISM reports a machinery firm stating that it is facing "huge logistics challenges, especially in getting products through ports and in getting containers." The problem is unlikely to clear soon with import order expectations at 56.8% (over 50% represents expansion) compared to the 54.6% rate of a month earlier and given U.S. seaborne imports increased 9.6% year over year in the first two weeks of January.
Export expectations dipped somewhat, marking a contrast to readings in Germany and France that have both surged in the wake of the passage of the EU-U.K. Trade & Cooperation Agreement.
Yet, there is a warning sign regarding the global trade recovery from China's CFLP survey, which included an import order expectation of 49.8% (where below 50% indicates contraction) down from 50.4% after a handful of cities went back into lockdown.
(Panjiva Research - Industrials)
Christopher Rogers and Eric Oak are researchers at Panjiva, a business line of S&P Global Market Intelligence, a division of S&P Global Inc. This content does not constitute investment advice, and the views and opinions expressed in this piece are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of S&P Global Market Intelligence.
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