U.K. challenger bank Metro Bank PLC could be a "deep value play" for a buyer such as a private equity firm, according to Goodbody Stockbrokers analyst John Cronin.
The bank's share price surged on Nov. 4 after it confirmed that it was approached by funds affiliated with U.S. private equity firm The Carlyle Group Inc.
In a Nov. 5 analyst note, Goodbody Stockbrokers' Cronin said the most likely explanation underpinning the interest in Metro Bank is that it is seen as a "deep value play" in the context of a sector that is re-rating. The firm forecasts a rebound to marginal profitability for Metro Bank in full year 2023 amid the bank's leadership managing costs down and a reorientation of its loan mix toward higher-yielding segments.
Metro endured steep losses in 2019 and 2020. In February 2019 it was forced to raise funds after its capital position deteriorated when it miscalculated the risk level of some commercial loans. Its share price has declined sharply from a 2018 peak.
But Carlyle's interest in the challenger bank could be taken to signal wider ambitions, such as potentially using the lender as a conduit for other acquisitions in the midtier space given its brand strength and reputation for quality customer service, Goodbody said.
Another possibility is that a new acquirer could enter the picture and inject capital into Metro Bank to facilitate faster growth in unsecured lending, Goodbody added. Other third parties might also be incited to take a look at the lender.
In an October trading update, the bank said its total net loans amounted to £12.32 billion at the end of the third quarter, down 18% year over year from £15.09 billion, while deposits rose 5% over the period to £16.41 billion. Metro Bank reported a loss of £141.1 million in the first half, narrowing from a year-ago loss of £239.5 million.
Carlyle must announce by Dec. 2 either a firm intention to make an offer for the bank or indicate that it does not intend to do so.