Bank lending has held onto its upward trajectory despite tightening financial conditions as the Federal Reserve moves to cool off the economy and rein in inflation.
Median sequential growth in gross loans in the first quarter across the 15 largest publicly traded U.S. banks stepped down to 0.7% from 5.7% in the 2021 fourth quarter. But the first quarter is typically seasonally slow, and industrywide growth reaccelerated during the first six weeks of the second quarter, according to Fed data.
The central bank's most recent survey of senior loan officers also shows that demand has continued to strengthen for commercial and industrial, or C&I, and consumer loans. However, the pace of easing of lending standards has slowed, raising doubts about how long the momentum can last.
C&I sets the pace
C&I continued to lead loan growth, with a median sequential increase of 5.1% in the first quarter across the big banks.
C&I growth is healthy at JPMorgan Chase & Co., Douglas Petno, the bank's commercial banking CEO, said at its investor day May 23. A recovery in line utilization is providing a "nice tailwind," he said, as clients build inventories to deal with supply chain problems and move forward with capital spending "that didn't happen during the pandemic." JPMorgan Chase's net interest income guidance anticipates high-single-digit percentage loan growth overall in 2022.
Analysts at Jefferies have found that the net proportion of senior loan officers reporting loosening C&I standards is tightly correlated with year-over-year growth, with a lag of about six quarters, and the same is true for net percentages reporting stronger demand, with a lag of about four quarters.
The net percentage reporting easing standards for large and middle-market borrowers fell to 1.5% in the second quarter from 14.5% in the first quarter, while the net percentage reporting stronger demand from such borrowers fell to 12.3% from 21.7%.
Stronger card demand
Median sequential growth in consumer loans for the big banks came in at a modest 0.8% in the first quarter, but industrywide consumer lending picked up in the first half of the second quarter, according to weekly data from the Fed without seasonal adjustment.
The net percentage of senior loan officers reporting stronger demand for credit card loans also increased to 26.1% in the second quarter from 19.6% in the first quarter, though the net percentage reporting loosening standards fell to 10.4% from 17.0%.
Warning signs
While lending has continued to expand and banks have refreshed projections for growth this year, the shift away from easing standards is raising doubts about the outlook.
"Banks could soon begin tightening conditions given the rising growth concerns on the back of the Fed tightening cycle," BofA Global Research credit strategist Yuri Seliger said in a note May 9.
Slower loosening "and rising rates could weigh on future demand and portend decelerating economic growth," analysts at Raymond James said.