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Lilly beats estimates in Q4, FY'20, with COVID-19 drug a major asset

Eli Lilly and Co.'s fourth-quarter revenue benefited from sales of the company's COVID-19 treatment bamlanivimab, rising 22% compared to the same period a year ago.

Since receiving U.S. Food and Drug Administration emergency use authorization in November, Lilly has shipped approximately 1 million doses of the antibody-based therapy, executives said on a Jan. 29 earnings call. The company expects to ship 1 million additional doses through the first half of the year, with the U.S. committed to purchasing 500,000 of those doses.

Bamlanivimab generated $871 million in revenue in the fourth quarter.

The company's sales rose exclusive of bamlanivimab's contribution, gaining 7% in the quarter with volume growth from some of the company's newer products launched since 2014, CEO David Ricks said on the call.

"These products now account for more than half of our revenue for the first time," Ricks said, referring to medicines like diabetes treatment Trulicity and immunology drug Taltz. Revenue from new cancer dug Verzenio grew almost 60% to over $900 million in sales.

Ricks acknowledged that the COVID-19 pandemic, while adding to the company's growth through bamlanivimab, caused some reduced demand for key products.

"While this may have a near-term impact on new-to-brand performance, we continue to believe our approach is the appropriate posture as we support healthcare professionals navigating the ongoing pandemic and driving broad vaccination to enable a return to normalcy for healthcare systems in the second half of the year," Ricks said.

One of the company's long-term prospects is the Alzheimer's disease drug donanemab, and Lilly expects to release data in March, with executives appearing optimistic on the call, Cowen analyst Steve Scala pointed out in a Jan. 29 note.

Previous results have demonstrated the drug's ability to slow decline in cognition and daily function. No disease-modifying drug yet exists to treat Alzheimer's.

Meanwhile, the FDA extended the review period for an Alzheimer's drug called aducanumab from fellow drugmakers Biogen Inc. and Eisai Co. Ltd. The administration has now set June 7 as the date for possible approval of aducanumab, which has faced many ups and downs in its clinical history.

Lilly has faced many failed Alzheimer's trials and products, but the possibility to bring donanemab to market would pay off in the long run, Ricks said.

"We've invested in Alzheimer's for 30-plus years and spent a lot of money mostly failing because there's a huge unmet medical need," Ricks said. "And we believe that investment is justified based on the size of the market."

Among other pipeline prospects for Lilly is the diabetes drug tirzepatide and blood cancer treatment Loxo-305.

"We believe [donanemab, tirzepatide and Loxo-305] are three of the most important and exciting pipeline assets in our industry and provide meaningful support for Lilly's growth potential beyond 2025," Ricks said.

Lilly also cemented a place in gene therapy with the $1.06 billion acquisition of Prevail Therapeutics, which closed Jan. 22. The therapies are being tested in neurological diseases, where Lilly has specialized in the past.

"This acquisition adds a promising new modality for Lilly by creating a gene therapy program that will be anchored by Prevail's portfolio of clinical-stage and late-preclinical-stage gene therapies across Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, dementia, ALS and other neurodegenerative disorders," Ricks said.

Financial results Q4 and full-year 2020

Lilly's fourth-quarter 2020 EPS rose to $2.75 on a non-GAAP basis compared to $1.73 per share in the same period a year ago.

The S&P Capital IQ consensus normalized EPS estimate for the fourth quarter was $2.39 per share.

Revenue reported in the fourth quarter totaled $7.44 billion.

For the full year, EPS increased on a non-GAAP basis to $7.93, up from $6.04 in the same period a year ago.

The S&P Capital IQ consensus normalized EPS estimate for 2020 was $7.55.

Lilly kept its 2021 guidance the same at a range of $7.75 to $8.40 per share.

Scala said in the Jan. 29 note that "Lilly remains one of our top picks in pharma."