The largest solar and wind developers in the US plan to add 121,966 MW in additional capacity over the next five years, according to an analysis of S&P Global Market Intelligence data.
NextEra Energy Inc. remained the largest owner for planned solar installations while Canada Pension Plan Investment Board and Apex Clean Energy Inc. switched between the first and second spot for wind.
Both segments appear to be headed back to growth as support from the Inflation Reduction Act works through development pipelines.
Tanya Sessions, vice president of business development at Origis Energy USA Inc, said the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has driven a "fantastic" increase in demand, though supply chains and some other factors are constraining growth.
"I'd say in the past it was more just a challenge on execution and now it's really a focus on growth and meeting those growth challenges," Sessions told S&P Global Commodity Insights. Referring to some of those challenges, Sessions said that while solar panel prices are coming down, other equipment constraints and tariffs have all created uncertainty. Transmission constraints also remain a major hurdle.
Hecate Energy's Jared Wren, senior manager of development and stakeholder engagement, also said that the supply chain has been "tough" for the past two or three years, but that the market has "stabilized ... with a generally strong outlook with interest rates."
"The devil remains in the details, and clarification and guidance from the federal government has already taken time," Wren said in an interview. He added that as there is more domestic content from the IRA, more manufacturers will be participating and bringing their capacity online. Besides the IRA, Wren said that modules and the supply chain have also contributed.
The market has put AES Corp. in a strong position, AES Clean Energy Chief Development Officer Woody Rubin said, noting that the company has secured a 3.3 GW backlog of signed power purchase agreements in the US and is looking to bring those online in the next three years.
"AES more than doubled new renewables additions to 2.1 GW of completed projects in 2023 compared to last year, including 1.4 GW of solar projects," Rubin said. "We continue to achieve tremendous execution milestones, and AES is on track to add another 2.2 GW of renewables in 2024 in the US."
Wind
The six largest owners of wind project pipelines as of the fourth quarter of 2022 were also on the list for the same quarter in 2023 but were in different spots.
Canada Pension Plan Investment Board took the top spot, bumping off the year-ago period's largest developer, Apex Clean Energy, which now placed second.
Canada Pension Plan Investment Board's subsidiaries Pattern Energy Group LLC and Cordelio have equity interests in 42 operating wind projects totaling 4.6 GW of net capacity and split across the US and Canada as of the December 2023 quarter, according to information provided by the pension plan.
Pattern and Cordelio have identified a 6.7 GW pipeline of wind projects expected to be delivered by 2028.
Anschutz Corp., Dominion Energy Inc., Berkshire Hathaway Inc. and Public Sector Pension Investment Board all dropped off the list to be replaced by Equinor ASA, BP PLC, Electricité de France SA and TransAlta Corp.
BP and Equinor had a joint offshore wind project in New York, the 2,400-MW Beacon Offshore Wind Project, but BP now wholly owns this project after swapping stakes with Equinor in January.
Market Intelligence considers a project as announced when it has a listing in an interconnection queue with an accompanying public announcement or permitting action. A project is considered in early development after permitting begins. For a project to be considered advanced development it must meet two out of five criteria: Financing is in place, power purchase agreements are signed, equipment is secured, required permits are approved or a contractor has signed on to the project. A project is under construction when building activity begins; site preparation does not qualify a project for this status.