Management at the largest bank in the U.S. said future credit costs will be highly dependent on how effective federal relief is at bridging customers back to employment, and that reserve additions in the coming periods could exceed the massive, $6.8 billion build the bank recorded in the first quarter.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. CFO Jennifer Piepszak said that the bank's provision expense for the first quarter took into account aid the federal government is providing, including direct checks to households and expanded unemployment benefits, in addition to JPMorgan Chase's own offer of payment deferrals to customers. "How they ultimately play out is of course probably the biggest unknown right now," she said in a conference call with reporters April 14.

So far, Piepszak said that about 4% of the bank's consumer "service book" has asked for forbearance. Outside of those customers, payment rates have been ordinary, she added.

"We did see a slight uptick in late payments in auto," she said. "But I would say we haven't seen anything meaningful as yet."

JPMorgan Chase set aside $3.8 billion for its credit card portfolio, representing the bulk of its reserve build. It also set aside $2.4 billion for its wholesale portfolio, including loans to the oil and gas sector.

Unemployment estimates vary widely. Piepszak said the first-quarter provisions anticipated "unemployment in the second quarter topping at 10% plus" and the start of a recovery in the second half of the year. She noted that the bank's economists now expect unemployment to peak at 20% in the second quarter, although they still anticipate a recovery in the second half of the year.

"Net reserve builds could be meaningfully higher in the aggregate over the next several quarters relative to what we took in the first quarter, of course depending on the path of the economic recovery," she said.

Piepszak said the bank is likely to continue its quarterly dividend of 90 cents per share. She said the dividend represents "a small claim on our capital base and people rely on it." She cautioned that the bank's board could reconsider the dividend if a recovery does not materialize later in 2020 and if "large parts of the economy are still in lock-down through the end of the year."

The hardest thing to predict is "the path of the virus and the path for the economy, and when and how it reopens," Piepszak said. "It's really going to come down to the ultimate effectiveness of" federal relief efforts in "bridging people back to employment."