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If Quibi is selling, analysts flummoxed on who might be a buyer

The short-form video offering Quibi Holdings LLC promised to change the paradigm of mobile video as we know it. But change is never easy.

The company — which offers five- to 10-minute "quick bites" of content, including original films, series, daily news and entertainment fare — is considering strategic alternatives, including a possible sale of the platform, according to The Wall Street Journal. The decision comes, according to the report, after a series of struggles, including a wide miss on projected users and a loss of 90% of its free-trial signups.

While the news of a potential sale is not necessarily surprising given Quibi's troubles since its April launch, it remains unclear who would be a buyer of the company and what exactly they would be getting.

The Journal cited other online video services as potential buyers, specifically Alphabet Inc.'s YouTube or Amazon.com Inc. But Marco Frazier, U.S. head of Insight TV Studios, said he would be surprised if any major streaming video or social media platform made an offer.

For example, while first-mover Netflix Inc. is one of the most successful streaming platforms by members and valuation, the company has not shown a considerable interest in mobile video, outside supporting a version of its app on devices. YouTube has led the industry in short-form video, but it is unclear whether it would consider a move into expensive, scripted video a viable addition to its already lucrative platform. Amazon Prime Video is the second-largest platform to Netflix, but it also does not seem to have serious mobile ambitions. While Facebook Inc. has invested in video streaming on Facebook Watch, it has not been core to the company's strategy and lacks the investment or celebrity-focus included on Quibi.

"Who is going to benefit the most? Who could pick up their contracts?" Frazier said in an interview.

Kagan analyst Seth Shafer was equally flummoxed about Quibi's acquisition prospects. He pointed to Sony Corp.'s failed attempt at a sale of its PlayStation Vue. The digital multichannel service eventually shuttered.

"It's going to be very difficult to find a buyer," Shafer said. Kagan is a media research group within S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Also, it is unclear what Quibi would be selling. The company's platform is full of original content, but those are contracted from the creators, and Shafer doubts whether those contracts accounted for a potential sale, in which case the buyer would have to strike entirely new content deals.

Quibi invested significantly in its mobile viewing technology called Turnstile, but that is currently the subject of a patent infringement lawsuit, and Shafer was not sure how much the technology is a driving factor in viewer decision making. Frazier agreed, saying that while technology adds to the mobile viewing experience, it is the content itself that attracts viewers.

As for buyers, Shafer said the company might have the best luck with its investors. Quibi raised about $1.75 billion in two rounds of funding before launch, including participation from some of the largest media and entertainment companies in the industry. Those include The Walt Disney Co., Lions Gate Entertainment Corp., AT&T Inc.'s WarnerMedia, Sony, and Comcast Corp.'s NBCUniversal Media LLC.

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Importantly, Frazier does not believe Quibi's struggles reflect a lack of consumer interest in short-form mobile video.

Frazier's own company launched inShort in the spring, a short-form, mobile-focused platform, which he said is performing well. However, there are important differences in the scopes of inShort and Quibi. InShort is predominantly unscripted niche content targeted at a young audience. It is affordably produced and easily accessible.

Quibi, by contrast, is attempting to take expensive, generalist scripted content and deliver it in small episodic bites with proprietary mobile viewing technology.

While Frazier said he admires Quibi's risk, he believes the platform suffered from its expensive generalist approach. The company produced a range of strong programming, for which it received 10 Emmy nominations. But at about $100,000 per minute of content in its first year, it outspent its competition in the short-form category "by very significant multiples" and it would have been "embarrassing if they didn't" receive a nod, Frazier said.

Further, the pandemic also likely pressured Quibi. Early amid the shelter-at-home orders, Katzenberg blamed Quibi's underperformance entirely on COVID-19, as home viewing favors long-form and large-format video. While Frazier and Kagan's Shafer agreed that Quibi likely did take a hit on some of its commuter-related viewing traffic, it also likely benefited from an increase in overall viewing across the streaming market.

Shafer said it is not the format or the pandemic that has stymied Quibi's growth. Rather, it has been a victim of its strategy and place in an increasingly competitive market.

The platform only includes new shows licensed exclusively by Quibi. While those shows typically feature big names, from Steven Spielberg to Brad Pitt, the splashy series are still unknown to consumers and shown on an unknown platform using new mobile gyroscopic technology, Shafer pointed out. It is difficult to entice viewers to something unheard of, especially when companies like Disney, NBCUniversal and WarnerMedia are launching their own branded streaming services built on massive catalogs of content.

"The struggle is pretty significant when people just simply don't know your content," Shafer said.