Russia's invasion of Ukraine has shifted Germany's political positions on several fronts, including long-held convictions on energy that have left the country relying heavily on Russian gas.

"We have to say, and admit, that Germany has in the past placed way too much reliance on Russian imports," German Energy and Climate Minister Robert Habeck said at a Feb. 28 meeting of energy ministers in Brussels.

About 60% of Germany's gas imports came from Russia in 2021, according to S&P Global Platts, while Russian gas accounts for 32% of gas demand in the EU and U.K., according to the International Energy Agency.

Germany has a much higher reliance on gas, oil and coal imports from Russia than other European countries, according to Habeck. "This results in an obligation to quickly free ourselves from this," the minister said.

Gas makes up about 15% of Germany's power generation and has a growing role in the country's future energy mix as the designated transition fuel away from coal.

In the short and medium term, Germany wants to diversify its imports of fossil fuels, while in the long term it will cut its fossil-fuel demand significantly, Habeck said. According to a draft government paper seen by Reuters, Germany will aim to fulfill all its electricity needs with renewables by 2035, compared to a previous target to abandon fossil fuels "well before 2040."

"Sovereignty of energy supplies has become a question of national security and we will have to invest in it," Habeck said in the German Bundestag earlier on Feb. 28. "We will need a ramp-up of hydrogen and renewables."

Yet, to tackle the immediate crisis, Germany is also boosting its reserves of gas and coal to shore up supplies.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Feb. 27 approved the construction of two new gas terminals that will receive imports via the sea, though their construction will not be completed in time to help ease potential supply crunches in the coming months. The recently completed Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline will not enter service anytime soon after the German government last week stopped its certification process indefinitely.

With key Russian businesses cut off from the SWIFT payment system in response to the invasion of Ukraine, gas deliveries into Europe from Russia are expected to drop, amplifying a preexisting shortage of gas throughout the continent.

"Germany is ill-prepared for this; we are now paying the very high price for a delayed energy transition," said Claudia Kemfert, head of the energy, transportation and environment department at the German Institute of Economic Research and a member of the German Environment Ministry's expert council on environmental issues.

"The deployment of renewables has to be top priority. Planning and construction procedures need to be accelerated under the justification of energy security," Kemfert said in a Feb. 28 editorial published in German outlet Frankfurter Rundschau.

Nuclear extension considered, but unlikely

At the end of this year, Germany will close over 4 GW of nuclear power generation capacity as it simultaneously finalizes its coal exit. Compensation for nuclear operators was agreed in early 2021, but with German officials having already thrown overboard long-held views on weapons exports into warzones, Habeck said the nuclear closure is also now under review.

The energy ministry is assessing the potential to extend the lifetime of three remaining nuclear reactors, Neckarwestheim, Isar II and Emsland, owned by EnBW Energie Baden-Württemberg AG, PreussenElektra GmbH and RWE AG, respectively.

Extensions beyond the end of this year remain unlikely, however. "I would not reject it ideologically," Habeck said about Germany's nuclear exit to broadcaster ARD on Feb. 27. However, "For the [2022-2023] winter, nuclear will not help." Preparations for the closure have been underway for years, and there are concerns over safety as well as the ad-hoc procurement of any potential fuel.

A spokesperson for RWE said the company is not prepared for extensions of its Emsland plant as the regulatory framework for closure is long agreed. "Our power plant is geared toward a closure at the end of this year, at which point the fuel will be used up," the spokesperson said in an email on Feb. 28. "Unlike for coal-fired plants, an extension of nuclear reactor operations cannot easily be done, as there are extremely high technical and administrative hurdles."

"We can understand that the government is looking at every option for supply in this serious situation," the spokesperson said.

EnBW also sees the nuclear exit as a done deal, but acknowledges the unprecedented situation. "Should an extraordinary need for energy supply arise in light of the war in Ukraine, this would need to be met effectively," a spokesperson said in an email, adding that the company is willing to support and advise the government.

PreussenElektra has not discussed any extensions for its Isar II reactor with the government, a spokesperson said. "Technically the power station absolutely fulfills all of the needed security requirements. But we have been preparing for a shutdown for years, and there are no fresh fuel rods or the needed staff available to run the operations," they said in an email.

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