President Emmanuel Macron, standing for reelection in April, wants to build six new nuclear reactors. Source: Chesnot/Getty Images Europe via Getty Images

When France heads to the polls April 10 to elect a new government, energy policy will be viewed through the prism of affordability and independence, at a time of surging consumer bills across Europe.

Nuclear power is the central piece of France's energy strategy, and some candidates have big visions for new nukes. But such plans are predicated on tackling technical and financial challenges at state-controlled utility Electricité de France SA, which is groaning under the financial burden of maintaining its 56 reactors.

Debate over EDF's future structure was kicked down the road until after the election and will be toward the top of the winner's in tray when they take office. Incumbent President Emmanuel Macron currently leads opinion polls, ahead of far-right candidate Marine Le Pen.

Going big on nuclear

Unlike Germany, whose new government, elected in 2021, plans to usher in more renewables and end coal-fired power generation by 2030, France's energy future is not set to change drastically in the next few years. The country draws a majority of its electricity from nuclear while coal makes up just a fraction of the mix.

References to energy policy are relatively scarce in Macron's election manifesto. In it, the president pledged to build six new nuclear reactors, grow solar power generation tenfold and build 50 offshore wind farms, all by 2050.

"We will provide the means needed to put France ahead on nuclear, batteries, hydrogen, renewables," Macron wrote in his plan.

Macron's proposals are not radical, at least in the near term. "Even if you go massively big on nuclear, that doesn't change anything at all for now," said Thomas Pellerin-Carlin, director of the Jacques Delors Energy Centre, part of Jacques Delors Institute think tank.

In placing its chips on the next generation of so-called European Pressurized Reactors, or EPRs, France will also need to keep its existing older generation of assets running until any new projects are completed, according to Yves Marignac, adviser on nuclear energy and the energy transition at energy think tank Négawatt. The first of six new units pledged by Macron, for instance, is not expected to be in service before 2037.

"The more we are going for EPRs, the more we commit to extending the current fleet," Marignac said at a March 24 webinar organized by Négawatt. which has been recommending a reduced reliance on nuclear power for years.

France's European neighbors like Spain and Germany are closing their nuclear chapters, but for Macron, the decision to add more capacity is also about "guaranteeing the energy independence of France" and "achieving our objectives, importantly of carbon neutrality in 2050," the president argued in a November 2021 speech.

EDF's future to be tackled by new government

EDF, which would be tasked with implementing Macron's "nuclear renaissance," is already facing challenges in the form of extensive maintenance on a raft of reactors due to faults discovered at some plants.

The utility's aging fleet will have a series of unplanned outages in addition to scheduled reviews in the coming months after corrosion was discovered or suspected at 11 plants. Meanwhile, the 1.6-GW Flamanville project, which has already seen years of delays and ballooning costs, is now expected online in early 2023, rather than this year.

The French state recently pumped €2 billion into EDF to bolster its balance sheet as it addresses technical problems with nukes and absorbs state actions to curb the fleet's profits in light of the energy crisis. In a recent speech, Macron declared a willingness to renationalize parts of the company, though this is not mentioned in his manifesto.

Crucially, France's new government will also have to make a decision about EDF's future structure to enable it to finance the company's multibillion-euro refurbishment plan for the existing fleet, let alone the six new nuclear reactors envisioned by Macron.

The discussions over the future of the business also include a proposal to lift the price EDF can charge retail competitors such as Engie SA or TotalEnergies SE for its nuclear production, known as ARENH.

Debate over spinning off the profitable renewables division and moving the capital-intensive nuclear unit into government hands has been rumbling for years, but the issue remains contentious. The solution will need to comply with European Union rules on state aid as well, and address workers' unions concerns over changes in conditions.

Onshore wind a sideshow

Compared to Germany, where a strong green movement lobbied for change, enthusiasm over renewables and climate change is more muted in France. A recent poll by Ipsos Sopra-Steria for news outlet France Inter about French voters' key concerns ranked climate change in third place, after cost of living and the healthcare system.

Compared to other issues, Macron is not spending much time thinking and consulting experts on energy and climate policy, according to Pellerin-Carlin.

"Energy policy isn't that important to [Macron]," Pellerin-Carlin said in an interview.

Notably absent from the president's manifesto are clear targets for onshore wind, the nemesis of right-wing candidates such as Le Pen and Éric Zemmour, both of whom have pledged to stop the development of onshore projects and even want to dismantle existing turbines. Onshore wind is strongly backed by Green Party candidate Yannick Jadot, who wants to build 3,000 new onshore turbines by 2027.

France was the only EU member state that failed to reach its 2020 renewables target, according to Négawatt. While solar installations accelerated significantly in the past year, onshore wind is stuttering, Marignac said.

"We are at a quasi stagnation, which is concerning," Marignac said. "Onshore wind should, like solar, be considered in the public interest."

French wind industry group France Energie Eolienne said the technology has been subject of disinformation campaigns and political point-scoring, with many communities concerned over visual impact. Onshore wind currently makes up 8% of the French energy mix.

While Macron's commitments on offshore wind are solid, greater support is needed for onshore, the group said. "The plans are clearly out of step with the needs of our country," Anne-Catherine de Tourtier, the group's president, said Feb. 11. "This trajectory would not make it possible, in the short or medium term, to protect the French from volatility, nor to ensure the level of energy security and independence that a country like France should have."

A protester during the yellow vest strikes in Paris. Source: Kiran Ridley/Stringer via Getty Images

Environmental activist group Greenpeace France was scathing on Macron's proposals, saying the president "has unveiled a plan as poor as his track record, which means without a real ambition for climate, even though he promised to be a champion of it in 2017." The group welcomed plans from Jadot and socialist candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon, saying that both put climate change at the heart of their proposals, while calling Le Pen "dangerous" and Zemmour "a zero" on environmental issues.

Affordability of energy still hot-button issue

The cost of living, the top issue of concern from the Ipsos Sopra-Steria poll, is also intrinsically related to energy costs, with households across Europe seeing their bills rise. In France in particular, affordability of energy has been a hot-button issue for years.

The so-called yellow vest protests of 2018 and 2019 began with the issue of rising fuel prices but spiraled out to a wider protest on workers' rights and pension reform, which saw workers from different sectors blockade key parts of the economy for a year and rally, sometimes violently, in the streets.

In the current energy crunch, the French state has been able to shield many citizens from price hikes, including with limits on EDF's ability to pass on higher prices to the market and direct support for vulnerable households, for instance. But this protection can't last forever.

"If prices stay at the current high levels, there will be pain," Pellerin-Carlin said. If the new government wants to avoid a repetition of the yellow-vest protests, it will have to handle public relations and policy around the issue carefully. "I see a lot of dry gun powder and I see a lot of people with matches," he added.

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