Greenhouse gas emissions from states participating in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative jumped nearly 13% between 2020 and 2022 as two nuclear plants were retired and natural gas-fired plants were used more to make up that capacity, a new report shows.
The assessment by the nonprofit Acadia Center, a clean energy advocacy group, shows that after a 50% decline since the RGGI's inception in late 2008, greenhouse gas emissions took a turn in 2020.
The change in regional emissions patterns followed the 2019 shutdown of the Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station in Massachusetts and the 2021 retirement of the Indian Point 3 plant in New York. The plant closures left a 31,731-GWh generation gap filled mainly by natural gas, according to Ben Butterworth, the Acadia Center's director of climate, energy and equity analysis and a co-author of the report.
Emissions from natural gas plants during the three-year period rose 14%, making the industry the key driver of the region's expanding carbon footprint.
"I think we need to correct course as quickly as possible," Butterworth said in an interview. "That means deploying wind and solar at scale, getting those plans approved, getting the projects financed, and getting wind turbines and solar panels in the ground and on rooftops."
Even with the recent increase in emissions, the Acadia Center found that the RGGI states achieved deeper carbon cuts and higher economic growth over the past two decades than did the 40 states that have not put a price on carbon. Retail electricity prices in the RGGI states have declined 3.2% since 2008 while rising 7.7% in other states, according to the report, released April 4.
The Acadia Center's emissions data covers the RGGI's core states: Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island and Vermont. New Jersey reentered the compact in 2020 and Virginia joined the same year, though Gov. Glenn Youngkin is trying to withdraw. Pennsylvania has been an official member since 2022 but has not participated in the RGGI because of ongoing litigation.
Butterworth noted that climate activists had long been concerned about the impacts of losses of carbon-free power generation in the Northeast US. Nuclear generation accounted for 27% of total generation in the region in 2021, down from 32% in 2019. Thus the recent emissions increase in RGGI states is not a surprise, Butterworth said.
Getting RGGI back on track
The report said that to get the RGGI to truly help the region's decarbonization efforts, its emissions cap must be tightened in line with the states' individual clean energy goals. A program review was begun in March to possibly do just that.
The nine core RGGI states would need to reduce emissions 95% by 2050 compared to 2021 levels and all 12 states by 85%, the report said. The goal becomes less ambitious at 85% if and when Pennsylvania joins because the state's climate goals are not as stringent as those of other states and because it is more fossil-fuel dependent, Butterworth said.
If Pennsylvania were to participate in the RGGI, its greenhouse gas emissions would equal 44% of all participants' output. Power plants that exceed the RGGI emissions cap must purchase allowances corresponding to each short ton of carbon dioxide they emit, which serves as an incentive for producers to invest in cleaner generation. Over the last two years, Pennsylvania would have made $1.92 billion from the proceeds of allowance auctions that go back to the RGGI participants, the Acadia Center said.
In 2021, natural gas-fired power plants supplied 57% and coal supplied 12% of Pennsylvania's generation, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Virginia gets 4% of its electricity from coal while New England states are virtually coal-free.
"The more aggressive that the RGGI states make the cap in this third program review, the higher it's going to drive the market price for compliance with RGGI and the more it's going to drive actual emissions reductions in the electricity generation sector," Butterworth said.
The RGGI states are conducting their third program review of RGGI market operations. Public comments are being accepted through April 21.
The Acadia Center also recommended that the RGGI lower the threshold for power plants required to participate in the market from 25 MW to 15 MW, which would add 240 generating units to the mix.
While the 240 plants would only account for 1.4% of RGGI emissions, the center said the change would have a significant impact on public health. Ninety-one percent of the plants are within a three-mile radius of an environmental justice community as identified by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Adding the plants would also generate nearly $26 million in annual RGGI proceeds.
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