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Financial stocks a relative safe harbor amid stormy start to 2022

After closing at an all-time high on Jan. 3, the S&P 500 has stumbled this month amid worries over inflation and a hawkish turn at the Federal Reserve.

Volatility has also returned with a vengeance as the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down over 1,100 points at one point yesterday before rallying to end the day with a slight gain.

While most investors worry what increased interest rates will do to global demand, bank stocks have proven relatively resilient as the prospect of higher net interest margins has so far outweighed broader economic concerns.

Through Jan. 24, the S&P 500 Financials index has lost 1.9% compared to a 7.4% drop for the broader S&P 500. Meanwhile, the more narrowly focused S&P U.S. BMI Banks index has returned a positive 0.2% year to date.

Among the 11 major sector indexes in the S&P 500, only the Energy index is in the green so far this year as geopolitical tensions have buoyed the price of oil.

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Only six of the top 25 U.S. banks by market capitalization were in the red this year through Jan. 24, but that includes the largest bank in the country, JPMorgan Chase & Co.

JPMorgan's stock started off 2022 strongly, up about 7% through Jan. 13. The megabank posted earnings that beat expectations on Jan. 14 but guided net interest income lower and noninterest expenses higher for 2022, which sent shares tumbling. The company's stock has lost ground every day since reporting earnings and was down 7.9% year to date through Jan. 24.

JPMorgan's favored status among investors seems to have slipped on the guidance, with the bank's value on a price-to-tangible book basis falling behind Bank of America Corp. Similarly, a couple of the industry's highest-priced stocks, First Republic Bank and SVB Financial Group, were the only banks among the 25 largest by market capitalization to post double-digit losses year to date.

By contrast, shares in Wells Fargo & Co., the U.S.'s third-largest bank by market capitalization and an underperformer in recent years, have gained 11.1% this year through Jan. 24, the highest return among the 25 largest banks. Wells Fargo's shares were up as much as 21.0% as of Jan. 14 following the bank's fourth-quarter 2021 earnings release but have since trended down along with the rest of the market.

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