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Few bank stocks post positive returns as recession fears spark sell-off

Only six US banks posted positive stock price returns for the week ended Aug. 7, as markets reeled in the wake of a disappointing jobs report.

The industry underperformed relative to the broader market during the period, with the KBW Nasdaq Bank Index falling 9.0% compared to a 5.8% decline for the S&P 500, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data. The underperformance followed a lackluster jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics that reignited recession fears among investors.

The sell-off prompted a spike in the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) — a measurement of the 30-day expected volatility of the S&P 500 — which for the week hit a peak intraday high of 65.7 on Aug. 5 after opening at 16.7 on July 31.

Best performers

Jeffersonville, Ind.-based First Savings Financial Group Inc. had the highest one-week return at 2.1%. The company's stock has surged in recent weeks, rising 34.7% from June 25 to Aug. 7, according to Market Intelligence data. In July, the company reported earnings results that showed "positive trends," Piper Sandler analyst Nathan Race wrote in a July 30 research note, citing higher-than-expected pre-provision net revenue (PPNR) driven by improving net interest income.

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Richmond, Ind.-based Richmond Mutual BanCorp. Inc. posted the second-highest return of the week at 1.9%, and Hammond, La.-based First Guaranty Bancshares Inc. rounded out the top three with a return of 1.1%.

While First Guaranty reported "weak" earnings during the second quarter, the company is working to improve its PPNR in order to fund a larger loan loss reserve, Janney analyst Chris Marinac said in a recent interview with Market Intelligence.

As a part of that effort, the company announced a sale-leaseback deal involving three of its properties and laid off 15% of its workforce in July, the analyst said.

"I think they're positioning themselves for a stable third quarter," Marinac said.

Worst performers

Mansfield, Pa.-based Citizens Financial Services Inc. had the worst-performing stock, with a return of negative 17.7%. Citizens Financial Services is one of several banks that have had commercial real estate loan exposure exceeding regulatory guidance and have realized some outsized stock price pressure.

Middletown, NY-based Orange County Bancorp Inc.'s second-quarter earnings results were "outstanding," according to a July 31 research report from Piper Sandler analyst Mark Fitzgibbon, but were still insufficient to spare the company's stock from the broader sell-off. The company reported a 1.34% return on average assets and a 19.19% return on tangible common equity.

"These levels of profitability in the current economic environment are tough to find elsewhere in bankland," Fitzgibbon wrote. "As a consequence, we expect the stock to outperform nicely."

Instead, Orange County Bancorp was the second-worst performer for the week with a return of negative 17.3%, while Dunmore, Pa.-based Fidelity D & D Bancorp Inc. was the third-worst performer with a return of negative 17.2%.