The rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee this week will almost certainly hike interest rates for the first time since December 2018, but the market will be more focused on future rate hike and inflation expectations and plans to reduce a nearly $9 trillion balance sheet.
Analysts see no likelihood of a "supersized" rate hike of 50 basis points, with overwhelming market odds having Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announce a hike of 25 basis points when the two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, concludes March 16.
"Above all, the Fed doesn't want to shock the market," said Callie Cox, a U.S. investment analyst at eToro. "There's already enough uncertainty out there. And shocking the market isn't this Fed regime's style."
The market odds of a 50-bps hike, once above 90%, plummeted following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
"Russia's invasion of Ukraine has led to a rethink, although not by all that much given the huge geopolitical, economic and financial uncertainty it has generated," wrote James Knightley, ING's chief international economist, in a March 11 note. Knightley forecasts six hikes of 25 bps each at the seven remaining FOMC meetings this year.
A series of hikes
Powell told the House Financial Services Committee on March 2 that he was "inclined to support at 25-basis-point rate hike" at the upcoming meeting with a "series" of hikes to follow.
Powell has been "very explicit" about the Fed's intention on hikes, limiting the likelihood of a market surprise, said Kathy Jones, managing director and chief fixed-income strategist with the Schwab Center for Financial Research.
The rate hike of 25 bps is a "mortal lock," said Steve Deppe, chief investment officer at Nerad + Deppe Wealth Management.
"I think the market is far beyond this Fed meeting, meaning it's already priced in March Fed actions," Deppe said. "Powell has telegraphed exactly what's coming [this] week."
Any market reaction will likely come from whatever is revealed in the Fed's summary of economic projections, which will include updated projections from Fed officials on inflation, GDP and the so-called "dot plot," which shows forecasts for future rate hikes.
The previous dot-plot, released after the FOMC's December meeting, showed that officials expected to raise the fed funds rate three times in 2022 and three times in 2023, based on median projections. Those expectations for 2022 may double in this latest dot-plot.
Balance sheet rundown
Another open question is just how much detail Powell will offer on the central bank's plans to reduce its balance sheet, which grew by trillions as the Fed bought $120 billion per month of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities at the start of the pandemic. The Fed officially ended that bond buying program on March 9.
How quickly the Fed will run down its nearly $9 trillion balance sheet is a pressing question for many investors since it signals just how quickly it is looking to tighten its ultra-loose monetary policy.
"Unloading the balance sheet is another form of tightening, and the Fed knows that they have to tread carefully at the moment," said Cox with eToro. "We may get a vague time frame from the Fed at this meeting, but likely no commitments."
Jones with Schwab said the FOMC is likely to discuss its balance sheet plans in detail during the meeting, but Powell may offer very few details at his press conference at the conclusion of the meeting in order to limit the market impact.
"Given everything that's happening it might mean that the Fed pushes back on providing the information," Jones said.