The EU's international trade activity with non-EU states surged 14.4% year over year in March, equivalent to a 5.5% rise compared to 2019, Panjiva's analysis of official data shows. While there was a surge in exports to China of 33.9% year over year and by 26.1% compared to 2019, shipments to the U.K. declined by 3.0% year over year and by 21.8% versus 2019.

The slide in trade with the U.K. was driven by a wide range of sectors including medical supplies, autos and capital goods, as discussed in Panjiva's research of May 18. Prospects for later in the year are clouded by the Johnson administration's plans to tighten import rules from October onwards. That may lead to a surge in shipments early in the fall before a decline subsequently.

In dollar terms, the growth in EU exports reached 19.2% year over year in March and was equivalent to 8.0% compared to 2019. Both far outpaced the performance in exports from the U.S., which were up by just 1.4% in March compared to March 2019 and lagged exports from Asia, which rose 18.8% over the same period.

Nonetheless, with global exports across 37 countries plus the EU tracked by Panjiva rising 23.1% year over year and by 12.8% versus March 2019, it is clear that the boost to global trade coming from stimulus packages and enhanced industrial and consumer demand remains substantial on a historic basis.

Christopher Rogers is a senior researcher at Panjiva, which is a business line of S&P Global Market Intelligence, a division of S&P Global Inc. This content does not constitute investment advice, and the views and opinions expressed in this piece are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of S&P Global Market Intelligence. Links are current at the time of publication. S&P Global Market Intelligence is not responsible if those links are unavailable later.