U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock, above, retained his Senate seat in a Dec. 6 runoff election, giving Democrats an expanded majority next year in the upper chamber of Congress.
Source: Win McNamee/Getty Images News via Getty Images North America

U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., held onto his Senate seat in a Dec. 6 runoff election, giving Democrats a 51-49 majority in the U.S. Senate next year.

The expanded Democratic majority in the upper chamber next Congress will allow the party to advance Biden administration nominees more easily and protect Democrats' energy and climate priorities, even if aggressive legislation on those issues seems unlikely in the next two years. It also could soften the grip held by moderate Democrat Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia on energy matters in Congress.

A larger Senate majority next year "gives us just a lift," Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer said during a Dec. 7 press briefing. "The fact that we got to 51 votes gives us just a great feeling of enthusiasm, unity, encouragement."

The Senate is currently split 50-50 between Democratic and Republican caucus members. As a result, Vice President Kamala Harris has frequently had to cast tie-breaking votes to pass Democratic legislation and confirm administrative appointees.

Having 51 caucus members next year will diminish Republicans' ability to block President Joe Biden's nominees to agencies and courts, making that process "a lot swifter and easier," Schumer said.

Democrats will also have numeric majorities on committees, increasing the chance of their legislation reaching the Senate floor.

With 51 votes, "a single Democratic senator won't be able to unilaterally halt progress on legislation," said Alexander McDonough, who served as a senior policy adviser on energy and environment issues to former Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid of Nevada.

A larger Senate majority will also allow Democrats to better deflect bills from a GOP-controlled U.S. House of Representatives next year, including Congressional Review Act resolutions to overturn recent regulations from the Biden administration. Such resolutions only need a simple majority to pass the Senate, making every Democratic vote crucial.

"[Fifty-one] votes might be pivotal to stopping House resolutions under the Congressional Review Act to nullify Biden's climate and energy rules," McDonough said in an interview.

Schumer also suggested Senate Democrats could use bolstered oversight powers to tackle "corporate corruption and inequities and other problems throughout the country."

But Democrats' ability to advance their preferred policies faces a significant check in the House, where Republicans will take control in January with a narrow majority.

"With a Republican House and several Democrat Senators in cycle in conservative states — anything that gets done on energy or environment policy will have to be narrow and bipartisan," former FERC Chairman and long-time Senate aide Neil Chatterjee said in an email Dec. 7. "The Georgia result doesn't change that dynamic."

But Democrats may now have "some more running room to reach effective consensus" in areas of energy policy with Republican support, said Scott Segal of Bracewell LLP's Policy Resolution Group. Segal noted that Republicans backed some provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act, including its support for energy efficiency, carbon capture and energy storage.

Manchin still a factor

Next Congress, moderate Democrats such as Manchin will not have as much ability to inhibit nominees or block bills. Manchin forced Democrats to scale back the scope of the Inflation Reduction Act, which contained $369 billion in climate and energy spending.

But the West Virginia lawmaker will remain an important gatekeeper as likely chairman again of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee. Manchin's positions have at times aligned more closely with Republicans, including his scrutiny earlier this year of FERC Chairman Richard Glick's approach to natural gas project permitting.

Manchin this fall held up action on Glick's renomination, saying he was not comfortable holding a hearing after Manchin was angered by President Joe Biden’s comments that seemed to favor sweeping coal plant closures. But with 51 votes, Senate leadership could move nominees out of committee onto the floor, even if Manchin's support is lacking.

Christine Tezak of ClearView Energy Partners suggested Warnock's win may mean the Senate waits until 2023 to act on FERC nominations and on "greener" nominees, such as Joseph Goffman, tapped to be assistant administrator for air and radiation at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

With such candidates potentially having better prospects in 2023, "we view a 51-49 Senate ... as posing additional hurdles to natural gas infrastructure projects, and likely leading to a more constructive environment for electric transmission and low-carbon generation," Tezak said in a Dec. 7 email.

S&P Global Commodity Insights reporter Maya Weber produces content for distribution on Platts Dimensions Pro. S&P Global Commodity Insights is owned by S&P Global Inc.

S&P Global Commodity Insights produces content for distribution on S&P Capital IQ Pro.