Shale driller Coterra Energy Inc. is looking to line up more LNG export deals, but infrastructure constraints might push opportunities out to the middle of the decade, executives said May 3.
Coterra moves 350 MMcf/d through the Cove Point LNG terminal in Maryland on a long-term LNG deal, Blake Sirgo, Coterra vice president for operations, told analysts.
"The challenge is just economics. It's expensive to get to the coast. There's limited pipes to get there. So you pay a pretty good fee to get there. And once you get there, we're entering a really crowded market," Sirgo said.
Competitors EQT Corp., Southwestern Energy Co. and Antero Resources Corp. are also actively pursuing LNG export deals.
Sirgo said Coterra was still looking for another LNG deal, but the vice president does not expect the market to loosen up until the middle of the decade when more U.S. terminals come online. "We haven't found one yet, but we're going to keep hammering away at it," Sirgo said.
Thomas Jorden, Coterra CEO and president, said the company has been in talks with policymakers about permitting more natural gas pipelines and export terminals.
"We need pipelines, which will take new legislation and cooperation from all stakeholders, including federal and state legislature and regulators," Jorden said. "I think the solutions here are self-evident, and I think everybody knows it. I just don't think we have the collective will to execute it. We need infrastructure."
Buybacks, dividends
Investors in the first quarter favored shale gas operators that could combine exposure to high global gas prices with free cash flow returned to investors, analysts have said. Driven by higher realized gas and oil prices, Coterra has $961 million in free cash to distribute in the first quarter through buybacks and dividends, it said.
Coterra said it would distribute the $961 million to shareholders by adding 60 cents per share in a variable dividend on top for its 15 cent-per-share base dividend while buying back $184 million of its stock, adding 23 cents per share to the total returned to shareholders in this quarter.
Coterra, the $10.4 billion combination of shale oil producer Cimarex Energy and Marcellus Shale gas producer Cabot Oil & Gas, handily beat expectations with $1.01 per share of adjusted earnings compared to the S&P Capital IQ consensus estimate of 82 cents per share.
Cabot shares gained more than 9% to $31.60 in heavy trading by midafternoon May 3.
"[Free cash flow] guidance of ~$4.5 billion was significantly above Street expectations and implies ample headroom to expand a $1.25B buyback authorization following a well-rounded 1Q beat," Stifel Nicolaus & Co. Inc. oil and gas analyst Michael Scialla told clients before the call. "The company is well positioned to expand a return of capital program that currently includes an implied 2022 dividend yield of ~9%."
Spending plans
Coterra said it would hold capital spending flat at $1.45 billion in 2022, less than 30% of its anticipated cash flow, while producing slightly more crude oil and slightly less gas.
In the first quarter, the company said its capital spending was $326 million for 83,000 barrels per day of crude and 2.85 Bcf/d of natural gas. The bulk of the gas came from Appalachia, and the bulk of the oil came from Texas' Permian Basin.
Coterra said its average realized price in the first quarter was $76.15/b for crude and $4.17 for natural gas after hedging. Because of the merger of Cimarex into Cabot, 2021's first-quarter numbers are for Cabot only and are not comparable to the 2022 first-quarter finances, Coterra said.
S&P Global Commodity Insights produces content for distribution on S&P Capital IQ Pro.