While some analysts question how seriously to take Elon Musk's offer for Twitter, others believe Twitter shareholders should "take this offer and run." Source: Chesnot / Getty Images Entertainment via Getty Images |
While Elon Musk's bid for Twitter Inc. is sure to draw the attention the tech mogul seems to relish, plenty of other challenges face Twitter apart from the Tesla Inc. CEO.
Musk offered $54.20 per share for 100% of Twitter's stock in what he described as his "best and final offer." Musk wrote that he would reconsider his status as a shareholder if the sale did not go through.
"I think it's very important for there to be an inclusive area for free speech," Musk said when asked about the reason for his interest in Twitter during an April 14 TED Talk. "Twitter has become sort of the de facto town square. People should have both the reality and the perception that they should be able to speak freely within the bounds of the law."
Analysts have mixed views on how seriously to take Musk's offer and whether he has the right temperament to lead in the tech space.
"Twitter is not known for a culture of innovation," 451 Research analyst Brenon Daly said. "That's in direct conflict with Elon Musk ... who thrives on contentious innovation. There's a strong dynamic — by confronting people and by pushing and pushing and pushing, he can get what he wants. That does not play well in the tech industry."
Twitter spent about $1.2 billion on research and development in 2021 — almost a quarter of its total revenue. Historically, it has proportionally outspent its much larger competitor Meta Platforms Inc. on R&D despite Meta's plethora of messaging apps and video-sharing options. Twitter's consistent strategy could clash with the high-risk, high-reward philosophy employed at Tesla and in Musk's other ventures, Daly said.
As a result, Daly does not expect Musk's offer to culminate in a deal.
"I think Wall Street clearly sees that this is a very Elon Musk-type activity," Daly said. "High drama, high attention but perhaps not sustainable."
Other analysts are similarly skeptical, noting that Twitter previously rejected M&A overtures from Walt Disney Co. and Salesforce Inc. And if Twitter does want to pursue a sale, it should seek out other offers.
"Twitter is no stranger to questions about corporate leadership and potential M&A activity, and Musk's involvement and actions could push the company to pursue other would-be acquisition options," Third Bridge analyst Scott Kessler said.
Kessler said it is important for investors to consider Twitter's next moves.
"How seriously do they consider Musk's offer?" Kessler said. "Do they hire advisors and bankers to help evaluate the offer and pursue other offers and options? It seems that if would-be strategic and/or financial buyers are interested in Twitter, they should probably engage now."
One such interested buyer may be Vanguard Group. The investment management firm disclosed April 8 that it increased its stake in Twitter to give it a 10.3% stake in the social networking service, retaking its place as the company's largest shareholder following Musk's disclosure of his 9.2% stake.
Vanguard did not respond to an emailed request for comment.
Kessler also said the timing of Musk's offer is intriguing because of the holiday weekend and market closures in New York and London.
"The timing is kind of interesting because you're going to have to kind of get a lot of people together," Kessler said. "I think the thing that has been most surprising is the pace of the news flow. I expect, over the near term, that pace to continue."
As Musk and Twitter leaders weigh their options ahead of the May 25 shareholder meeting, Daly said the longer the confrontation between the two parties drags on, the less likely Musk is to transact.
"I would not be surprised to see Musk throw up his hands and walk away from his holding a couple of months from now," Daly said. "He could do it systematically or maybe more in character, just dump it all on the open market."
However, CFRA research analyst Angelo Zino said Musk's attempt to fully acquire Twitter is not a surprise, and shareholders would be hard-pressed to decline the offer, a 38% premium over the day before Musk's April 4 disclosure of his Twitter holdings.
"Musk believes that he would be more effective in driving change at Twitter," Zino wrote in a research note. "We think the offer price should be viewed as enticing to shareholders (near our $55 target price) and will be difficult to reject."
Twitter's board is considering adopting a "poison pill," in which it could issue new shares or offer shares at a discount to other shareholders, The New York Times reported April 15. The maneuver would effectively dilute Musk's stake.
MoffettNathanson analyst Michael Nathanson gave Musk's offer 50/50 odds of acceptance. But given the difficulties Twitter faces, including its declining free cash flow, Nathanson knows what he would do.
"We realize that a take-it or leave-it offer is not ultimately how shareholders or a board of directors want to negotiate, but we would urge both to take this offer and run," Nathanson said.
Twitter shares closed at $45.08 on April 14.
451 Research is part of S&P Global Market Intelligence.