The Libor-OIS spread, a closely watched metric showing stress in the interbank lending market, has returned to pre-crisis levels as financial markets' coronavirus-related anxiety dissipates.
The spread measures the difference between the three-month dollar London interbank offered rate, the average cost for banks to borrow from each other, and the overnight indexed swap rate, or OIS. It was 38.53 basis points as of May 6, the lowest level since March 10 before widespread social distancing measures began to be imposed across the U.S.
The measure touched this year's low of 12.75 basis points Feb. 20 and averaged 24.90 in the 12 months through the end of February.
Amid concern that the demand shock from the measures to control the coronavirus outbreak could herald a financial crisis, Libor-OIS had stretched to 138.68 bps by March 27 before extensive intervention the Federal Reserve did much to calm investors' nerves.
"Futures indicate Libor-OIS will settle in the mid-20 bp range for much of the rest of the year," BMO Capital Markets wrote in a research note. "Even in normal times free of financial market stress, Libor-OIS rarely sets below 15-20 bp."
Credit markets continued to narrow gradually with the spread in the U.S. investment-grade sector falling from 305 bps to 217 bps over the course of April, rising slightly to 220 bps as of May 4.
"The Fed has unequivocally succeeded in stabilizing the U.S. corporate bond markets," Win Thin, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, said in a report.
Emerging market debt spreads had proven stickier with investors looking nervously at the fate of poorer countries. But sentiment has been improving with debt inflows into the complex recovering from the worst-ever month in March to a positive $15.1 billion in April, according to the Institute of International Finance.
The spreads on emerging market debt narrowed accordingly, shedding 20 bps in a week by May 4 to 521 bps and returning to levels seen in mid-March.