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Bank M&A's near-term outlook unclear as Fed operates without supervision chief

The Federal Reserve has been operating without a vice chair for supervision since Randal Quarles' term expired Oct. 13, which industry observers say could complicate bank deal approvals.

Quarles no longer leads the Committee on Supervision and Regulation, which "will meet as necessary on an unchaired basis," a Fed spokesperson said. Board of governors members Lael Brainard and Michelle Bowman are the other two committee members.

Previously, as vice chair, Quarles was responsible for developing the committee's policy recommendations for the Fed board of governors. Now, matters "within the committee's responsibility will proceed to the full board only where there is broad consensus among the committee members," the spokesperson said.

"That is definitely a higher hurdle for bank regulation," said Derek Tang, an economist at Monetary Policy Analytics. Brainard and Bowman "essentially have veto power over these efforts."

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Tang added that Fed Chair Jerome Powell could have let Quarles continue operating on an acting basis or let the board's most senior member — Brainard — be the chair.

Allowing the supervision team to move ahead without a chair may be a sign of Fed laxity, according to Francesco Trebbi, a business and public policy professor at the University of California, Berkeley's Haas School of Business.

"With large financial institutions now on seemingly stronger footing at least in terms of capital ratios, the Fed board appears not to wish to immediately replace its vice chairman for supervision," Trebbi said. "I think this may be a sign of complacency, as the risks of a banking crisis appear increasingly forgotten."

Tang predicted the new system will cause delays.

"A lot of things will be held up," he said. "I think that is sort of the implication of this all because to get a full consensus among the three — those three — members might be quite difficult because Brainard and Quarles are on opposite ends on [the] issues."

Banks need to consider politics and the approval process when considering deals, Tang added.

"What was actually very evident is how political the M&A process is," he said. "Before [banks] even embark on it, they have to know: OK, does this have a good chance of passing, and if not we're not to waste our time and money. … If we do proceed with it, how much time would it take?"

Brainard, in particular, is expected to be tough on mergers.

"Mergers that hit a nerve with her, for example … she wouldn't even let them go past the first stage, whereas in a Quarles-led environment, they would go, [and] they would advance to some later stage before, of course, being bogged down by paperwork or bureaucracy," Tang said.

Interim measure

Other analysts indicated that they do not see the committee system lacking a vice chair as a major problem because of its temporary nature.

"I presume this interregnum won't last very long," said Simon Johnson, a professor and head of the global economics and management group at the MIT Sloan School of Management. "Perhaps it's just a short gap while there's a reshuffle, in which case I don't think the consequences will be too severe, but I think it is inadvisable to leave that position open for a prolonged period of time."

Although Quarles is no longer chair, his position on the committee is likely to bring some continuity.

"It's still the same three people," James Angel, associate professor at Georgetown University's McDonough School of Business, said in an interview. "So anything that has to go through the committee still has to get two votes, and so [Quarles is] still going to have a very major influence on the events."

Bert Ely, principal of Ely & Co. Inc., agreed that this change to a single governor will have a limited effect. Decisions are a collective effort, with work done by staff and approvals by the board, unlike other bank federal regulators that are led by one individual.

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment on this story.