Clearing enough bridge debris to unblock the Port of Baltimore could take 10-14 days if all goes smoothly, marine salvage experts told S&P Global Commodity Insights.

That might be enough to prevent major disruptions to coal exports and supply chains after the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge. Baltimore ranked in the top 20 US ports for 2021 by tonnage volume, according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics.

Clearing a path for ships hinges on how difficult it will be to safely untangle a container ship from the bridge and then cut and lift away the jumbled steel structure, much of which is underwater, experts said.

"If it's a tangled mess, and there's a lot of underwater cutting and intricate rigging, days could turn into weeks," Stephen Frailey, a partner responsible for government and military affairs for California-based Pacific Maritime Group Ltd., said March 28. "But if they're fortunate enough that there are liftable, large sections, and they can safely access those sections, I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility that we could be talking 10-14 days — something like that."

Other experts, including Sylvia Tervoort from de Haas van Oosterhout, a marine firm in the Netherlands, agreed that a timeline of 10-14 days was possible, though Tervoort emphasized that myriad factors could upset the timeline. These include considerations for missing victims, regulatory and legal snags, safety and the weather.

"There are a lot of stakeholders in these operations, although the priority [of opening the channel] is very clear to most of them," Tervoort said.

The US Coast Guard and the US Department of Transportation have yet to define a timeline for clearing the crumbled wreckage of the bridge and the Dali, a container ship that smashed the structure March 26. President Joe Biden has made reopening the harbor a priority, and the administration has promised as much aid as it can deliver.

Authorities are moving from search and rescue mode to a salvage operation, the Maryland State Police said during an evening news conference on March 27. The bodies of two victims have been found; four people are missing and presumed dead, state police said.

Baltimore is a major hub for coal and accounted for 28.9%, or 7.0 million metric tons, of US coal exports in the fourth quarter of 2023. The port is crucial to the auto industry, which ships vehicles and parts through Baltimore, and it also handles significant amounts of refined metals. The city is a less significant destination for mined raw materials such as copper concentrate or fertilizers, but Alcoa Corp. depends on the port for shipments of alumina, which feed its Massena West smelter in New York.

Reopening logistics

The initial priority will be to assess and move the Dali, which might take a few days, said Frailey, a US Coast Guard-licensed master of towing vessels and former US Navy diver.

The Coast Guard is coordinating with the US Corp of Army Engineers to haul away the cargo ship, said Vice Admiral Peter Gautier, the deputy commandant for operations for the Coast Guard. Gautier said the main challenge now is separating the steel bridge from the bow of the ship.

"Once that’s done, I think the salvors will be ready to do the necessary actions to refloat that vessel and remove it," Gautier said during a March 27 White House news conference.

The Army Corps of Engineers responded by email to confirm that it will lead channel-clearing operations, but said it could not provide a timeline. The Corps activated emergency operations, freeing up over 1,100 engineering, construction, contracting and operations experts to support the cleanup, according to a March 27 news release.

No easy task

Channel clearing will likely focus on cutting out a smaller part of the ruins from the bridge, thus allowing ships to start passing in and out of the harbor, Frailey said. The tentative shipping lane might come with special restrictions and require escorts for safety reasons, perhaps slowing down traffic navigating the inner harbor.

"My guess is that they're going to be planning to work around the clock to get to the point where the channel is open again, even if that means there's some possible remaining debris," Frailey said.

In response to emailed questions, the Department of Transportation pointed to the March 27 news conference but did not give additional details about the timeline. During that briefing, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg did not say how long he expected the initial cleanup to take, but he noted that reopening the harbor was a priority, given its economic importance.