The S&P 500's energy sector rose from the dead in November.
After plummeting 49.9% from the start of 2020 through the end of October, the sector skyrocketed more than 28% in November.
"It is 100% related to the success on the vaccine front and the ability of the market to look through the temporary demand weakness towards a post-COVID world in 2021," said Eric Nuttall, a partner and senior portfolio manager at Ninepoint Partners.
After the ongoing coronavirus pandemic pushed global demand into freefall and supply to a historic glut, positive vaccine developments have triggered hopes of demand recovery and a sector rebirth.
"After underperforming the broader market in eight of the last nine years, any bullish catalyst would have been enough to boost beat-down energy stocks," said Matt Weller, global head of research at GAIN Capital. "The announcement of several highly effective vaccines that can be rolled out quickly is just the type of news that may help energy stocks carve out a longer-term bottom."
Full recovery will take time, Nuttall said. The S&P 500's energy sector remains down 36.5% on the year, by far the worst performing of any of the large-cap index's 11 sectors. Financials, the next worst performing sector, is down 7.5% on the year.
The path out of the pandemic for demand is also a steep one for the energy sector.
Global liquid fuels demand fell below 81 million barrels per day in April as the pandemic raged worldwide, a decline of 21% from December 2019, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates. The EIA forecast demand will climb back to pre-pandemic levels by November 2021.
"The potential roll-out of at least two highly effective COVID vaccines is likely to represent an inflection point for oil market fundamentals, potentially clearing the clouds over the subdued demand outlook due to social distancing," Amarpreet Singh, an oil analyst with Barclays, wrote in a note.
After positive vaccine announcements from Pfizer Inc., Moderna Inc. and others, analysts with S&P Global Platts Analytics increased their forecasts for global oil demand to 6.3 million barrels per day of growth in 2021 from a previous forecast of 5.8 million barrels per day.
This growth will follow a decline in demand of 8.7 million barrels per day in 2020, and despite positive developments on vaccines, challenges remain, Naing Oo, an oil demand analyst with Platts Analytics, said in a note.
"After all, it will be a historic logistical challenge to produce enough doses; and there are still unknowns about how long effects from these vaccines last," Oo wrote.
Best November in 92 years
Overall, the S&P 500 gained 11% in November, its best month since April, and settled at all-time highs four times: on Nov. 13, Nov. 16, Nov. 24 and Nov. 27. It was the best November for the S&P 500 since it gained nearly 12% in November 1928.
The large-cap index was buoyed by the U.S. elections and vaccine news, said Craig Erlam, a senior market analyst with OANDA.
"While markets responded surprisingly well to the election, perhaps comforted by the prospect of a Republican Senate and trust in the U.S. institutions to prevent any prolonged uncertainty, it was the vaccine news that took it to another gear," Erlam said. "And while we may have seen some profit taking, equity markets have held onto those gains very well. Cause for optimism going into year-end."
In such circumstances, the boldest investors reaped the largest reward.
Of the 11 factors tracked by S&P Global Market Intelligence, the High Beta index produced the highest monthly returns in November. The directional trading strategy, which invests in stocks that tend to move further than the market, returned 25.9% last month, making it the best-performing factor for the second consecutive month.
Having returned 17.3% in the first 11 months of the year, High Beta lags the Growth and Momentum factors, at 28.2% and 24.2% respectively, which were bolstered for much of the year by their exposure to tech stocks. But as investors move back into cyclical sectors such as energy, tech has performed less strongly, leaving Growth and Momentum near the bottom of the pile in November.
S&P Global Platts and S&P Global Market Intelligence are owned by S&P Global Inc.