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5G spectrum deployment standoff: What will be different on Jan. 19?

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5G spectrum deployment standoff: What will be different on Jan. 19?

After a second 5G spectrum rollout delay, a statement from the White House suggests AT&T Inc. and Verizon Communications Inc. have come to a resolution with the Federal Aviation Administration to ensure a Jan. 19 launch, easing investor concerns deployment delays could continue for months.

A letter signed by President Joe Biden suggests the dispute between all parties has been settled. "This agreement ensures that there will be no disruptions to air operations over the next two weeks and puts us on track to substantially reduce disruptions to air operations when AT&T and Verizon launch 5G on January 19," the letter stated.

The dispute has centered on C-band spectrum in the 3.7 GHz-3.98 GHz band in early 2022. Mid-band spectrum is important for 5G networks because of high-band spectrum's limitations and low-band spectrum's crowded bands.

The agreement Biden alluded to indicates the FAA and the aviation industry will identify priority airports where a buffer zone would permit aviation operations to continue safely while the FAA completes its assessments of the interference potential around those airports during the two weeks. AT&T and Verizon have also agreed to stricter precautions around airports over the next six months to lessen interference woes, despite lack of evidence that interference issues will endanger flights.

The investigations taking place over the next two weeks are unlikely to produce any evidence the equipment is dangerous to flights, according to Lynnette Luna, an analyst with Kagan, a media research group within S&P Global Market Intelligence.

"These interference issues are not new. The FCC and [National Telecommunications and Information Administration] engineers had already evaluated and decided a while back that these were not problems," Luna said.

She added, however, that she understands the sense of caution around the issue. "No one wants to be the source of potential safety problems when it comes to flying," she said.

The first delay of the C-band rollout was announced in November 2021. Subsequent delays followed, with the latest being a two-week postponement announced Jan. 3 after the FAA threatened to impose flight restrictions unless Verizon and AT&T agreed to put off their plans.

While some observers worried that further delays could follow, New Street Analyst Blair Levin believes the statement from the Biden administration is reason to believe that deployment will actually take place on Jan. 19, less than two months after the original planned launch date, and will not cause any long-term financial impact to AT&T or Verizon.

"In settling the matter, the carriers might have had to alter their service (such as with power levels in a broad geography) or pay a cost (such as paying for new equipment for airlines) that would have affected the companies' financial results," Levin wrote. "The carriers' concessions do neither and we don't think will have any short-term or long-term impact on those results.

"We do not know for certain the process that finally resolved the matter, but clearly, the White House itself played a role in resolving the issue," Levin wrote.

Speaking during an investor conference Jan. 5, Verizon Chief Technology Officer Kyle Malady described the two-week delay as "the final agreement."

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"We have legal rights to that spectrum," Malady said.

C-band spectrum is especially important for Verizon's 5G service, which thus far has largely relied on millimeter-wave spectrum, which can carry massive amounts of data at high speeds but has trouble traveling long distances and penetrating certain surfaces due to its shorter wavelengths.

The importance of the C-band spectrum is evident in how much Verizon and AT&T were willing to spend to get it. In a 2021 auction, Verizon shelled out $45.45 billion to win 3,511 licenses, while AT&T was the second-biggest spender, paying $23.41 billion for 1,621 licenses. T-Mobile US Inc., which has a stockpile of 2.5 GHz spectrum from its purchase of Sprint, spent $9.34 billion in the C-band auction for 142 licenses.

Verizon pledged Jan. 4 that its 5G Ultra Wideband network will be available to more than 100 million people by the end of the month, and even began rolling out new 5G wireless plans on Jan. 5 ahead of the expected Jan. 19 launch.

"Now the work continues with the airline industry as they figure out exactly how they're going to roll forward after the two-week period here," Malady said Jan. 5.