The decision by the group led by State Farm Mutual Automobile Insurance Co. to no longer write new policy applications in California for a range of lines, including its market-leading homeowners business, carries the kind of significance from a quantitative standpoint that justifies the attention it has received on a national basis.
With a market share of nearly 20.4% of the combination of the homeowners and farmowners lines in California, the State Farm group holds a dominant position in those lines with the Farmers Insurance Group of Cos. ranking as the only other entity accounting for more than 6.6% of the Golden State's 2022 direct premiums written. CSAA Insurance Exchange, Liberty Mutual Holding Co. Inc. and The Allstate Corp., the 3rd-, 4th- and 5th-ranked California homeowners and farmowners writers, had a combined market share of 19.2% in 2022.
A review of filings obtained by S&P Global Market Intelligence indicates that State Farm's new business halt involves business lines that accounted for at least 46.1% of the group's 2022 property and casualty direct premiums, with the company serving notice that it would no longer accept applications for new policies in commercial auto, workers' compensation, commercial multiperil, other liability and inland marine in addition to homeowners and farmowners. Extrapolating data provided by State Farm to the California Department of Insurance regarding new business volume in its owner-occupied homeowners and rental dwelling programs across all of the known impacted lines, we estimate that this retreat could impact more than $375 million in direct premiums written per year in a state where the group generated total P&C volume of $7.84 billion in 2022.
Due to the combination of the negative effects of inflation on the private auto business and elevated natural catastrophe losses, the State Farm P&C group produced a historically large net underwriting loss in calendar year 2022, and its first-quarter 2023 results deteriorated significantly on a year-over-year basis.
State Farm General Insurance Co. on Feb. 28 filed a request for a 28.1% overall increase for its California Homeowners Program, including hikes of 29.0% on non-tenant homeowners, 20.0% on condominium unit owners and 15.0% on renters, with a proposed effective date of Sept. 1. The rate-level history table in the filing indicated that the company is due to implement a 6.9% increase on non-tenant homeowners business on June 1, and it implemented rate increases of the same amount on three occasions between October 2020 and February 2022. S&P Global Market Intelligence and RateFilings.com archives show that State Farm has not filed for a rate increase on its core California homeowners program, not including manufactured home and certain ancillary residential property coverages, of anything approaching 28.1% in at least 30 years.
Other carriers have sought double-digit percentage increases on California homeowners business in recent months, most notably the combination of Farmers Insurance Exchange, Fire Insurance Exchange and Mid-Century Insurance Co. They filed for an overall rate increase of 25.5%, including hikes of 20.0% on the Farmers Next-Generation Homeowners program and 33.0% on the Farmers Smart Plan Home program, to take effect on July 1, 2024. They submitted the filing less than three weeks after the California Department of Insurance approved an overall increase of 17.7% that is due to take effect on June 17.
In connection with the pending State Farm rate filing, the company submitted supplemental exhibits in response to a California Department of Insurance objection that outlines the significance of new business to its overall homeowners program. State Farm wrote an average of 231,739 new homeowners policies per year from 2018 through 2022, including 243,566 in 2022. The amount of earned premiums associated with those new policies in 2022 was $236.2 million. These figures compared to a renewal book of 1.68 million policies and $1.77 billion of earned premium in 2022. State Farm separately reported that its rental dwelling program had 15,000 new and 254,166 renewal policies in 2022 with associated earned premiums of $11.9 million and $206.3 million, respectively.
If we extrapolate the 11.2% new-business share of the combined owner-occupied homeowners and rental dwelling earned premiums to all of the lines impacted by the halt using 2022 data, we arrive at an estimated impact on the group's overall annual volume of more than $375 million.
S&P Global Market Intelligence has obtained State Farm filings indicating a halt on new business applications for the following programs as of May 28:
* Commercial auto: All new and reinstated commercial vehicle applicants are ineligible, though additional vehicles for additional customers may be considered;
* Commercial multiperil: The contractors risk type for the artisan and service contractors program;
* Commercial multiperil: Apartment program;
* Commercial multiperil: Residential Community Association program;
* Commercial multiperil: Businessowners' program;
* Commercial multiperil: Religious organizations program;
* Farmowners: Farm and ranch program;
* Homeowners: Manufactured home;
* Homeowners: Rental Condominium Unitowners' program;
* Homeowners: California Homeowners program (as a revision to underwriting guidelines in the aforementioned rate/rule filing);
* Inland marine: Boatowners and personal watercraft;
* Inland marine: Commercial;
* Inland marine: Personal Articles Policy program;
* Other liability: Commercial Liability Umbrella Policy program;
* Other liability: Premises Personal Liability program;
* Other liability: Personal Liability Umbrella Policy program;
* Other liability: Notary Errors and Omissions Liability;
* Workers' comp: Standard workers' comp
The State Farm group generated 2022 California direct premiums written across the impacted business lines in the following amounts: $162.1 million in commercial auto; $447.2 million in commercial multiperil; $17.0 million in farmowners; $2.56 billion in homeowners; $257.4 million in other liability-claims made and occurrence; and $102.2 million in workers' comp. Our estimate assumes that the group will no longer accept new business applications for all of its programs within those lines.
State Farm cited "historic increases in construction costs outpacing inflation, rapidly growing catastrophe exposure, and a challenging reinsurance market" for its new business retreat.
The product filings obtained through May 28 did not specifically address P&C lines that accounted for an additional $85.1 million in California P&C premiums in 2022, including fire and earthquake. State Farm's P&C companies also produced $91.8 million in accident-and-health business volume in the state.
Private auto, the group's largest California business with $4.05 billion in direct premiums written in 2022, is not impacted by the new business halt. State Farm was also California's No. 1 private auto insurer in 2022 with a share of 12.4%. GEICO Corp. parent Berkshire Hathaway Inc., Allstate and Farmers all held double-digit market share in that business.