Global growth strengthens as emerging markets stabilise

The following is an extract from Markit's monthly economic overview. For the full report please click the link at the bottom of the article.

Global growth worries allayed by faster expansion in November

The JPMorgan Global PMI rose for a second month in November to a level just above the average seen in the year to date. The survey is broadly consistent with annual global GDP growth of just over 2%. The global upturn continued to be led by services, but perhaps the most welcome news was a further revival in manufacturing growth from the near-stalling seen in September and pointing to recovering trade flows.

Global PMI and economic growth

Manufacturing v services

Broad-based developed world growth

Growth accelerated to a three-month high in the developed world. The rise in the PMI brought the surveys in line with GDP growth of just under 2%, so remaining below the 2-2.5% annual growth rate that is widely considered to be a sustainable long term trend for developed economies. However, all four largest developed world economies enjoyed sustained solid or accelerating growth in November.

Developed markets

Four largest DM economies

Emerging markets see first expansion since July

The emerging market PMI edged above 50 to register the first expansion of business activity since July. However, the survey data remain indicative of only 4% annual GDP growth, therefore remaining well below (more than half) the rate of expansion seen prior to the global financial crisis. Signs of stabilisation in China and Russia contrasted with a near stalling of growth in India and an ongoing steep decline in Brazil.

Emerging markets

Four largest EM economies

Use the download link below to access a full overview of the November PMI surveys, including details of all major economies, policy implications and the market impact.

Download full article