Jihadists' appeal to West African Peul communities confirms aspiration to extend their insurgency beyond Mali

Three jihadist leaders in Mali have appeared in a video, released on 8 November, appealing to Muslim ethnic-Peul communities across West Africa to join the jihad. The video features Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) leader Iyad ag Ghaly, along with Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) official Djamel Okacha (alias Yahya Abou Amane), who is active in the Timbuktu region, and Amadou Koufa, who leads the Peul-dominated Front de Liberation du Macina (FLM) in central Mali. Koufa is the only speaker and makes his address in the Peul language, in which he recognises Ghaly's overall leadership, criticises French intervention, and denounces "unjustified attacks" against Peul communities in the sub-region.

Significance: The appearance of the three leaders together is likely intended as a show of unity and defiance, indicating their continued freedom of movement, despite the large international military presence in Mali, and that they are undeterred by the imminent operationalisation of the US unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) base in Niger. The appeal to Peuls in Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Niger, Nigeria, and Senegal, aimed at deepening divisions between these nomadic communities and respective governments, also suggests that they are seeking to extend their operations beyond Mali by searching for recruits or proxy groups elsewhere. This is backed up by an observed shift towards Burkina Faso and western Niger, where jihadist attacks are on the increase, and where there are large Peul populations and few or no international troops. These two countries also border countries where the jihadist networks are less established, which would facilitate infiltration and radicalisation from their territories. One indicator of a change in jihadist priorities, and reduced terrorist risk in Mali, would be a reduction in major attacks involving suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (SVBIEDs). The video's success in appealing to Peuls in the seven other countries will be indicated by its impact on locations and frequency of attacks, targeting government or French military assets and vulnerable French citizens for kidnap.