Summer in Britain means Wimbledon, the world’s oldest tennis tournament. And Wimbledon means strawberries and cream, a dish that has reportedly been served at the event since it first took place in 1877. 

That’s the history — but in the face of climate change, we wanted to understand what the future of strawberry production could look like. 

While all strawberries served at Wimbledon are British, Spain provided nearly a quarter of all exported strawberries globally in 2022, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data. The market value of Spanish strawberry exports globally was $779 million for the year. 

The Spanish province of Huelva is responsible for production of the significant majority of the country’s strawberry exports. As the physical risks of climate change are becoming more evident, S&P Global Sustainable1 analyzed the region’s exposure to wildfire, water stress and drought. We found that by the 2050s under a business-as-usual climate scenario, where a score of 100 represents maximum risk exposure: 

• The Huelva Province’s exposure to physical risk caused by water stress will be significantly increased by the 2050s. The province’s exposure to physical risk caused by water stress stands at 73 in the 2020s and increases to 82 in the 2050s.
• The province’s exposure to the physical risk of drought will increase from a score of 21 to 36 during the same period.

• There will also be an increased risk of exposure to wildfire by the 2050s, with the risk rising from a score of 7 to 21, a 200% increase.

The link between climate change and food security is rising up the agenda for economists and climate scientists. For many, it may not seem an obvious step to look to a future where the physical impacts of climate change could present a significant risk to the summer staple of strawberries.

However, the data tells us a different story. The market value of Spanish strawberry exports to European neighbors in 2022 was $775 million, accounting for 42% of all strawberries imported by EU countries, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data. With just under half of the EU’s imported strawberries coming from Spain and the Huelva province facing a 200% increase in the exposure to wildfire and a risk exposure score of 86 for water stress in the 2050s, it reinforces that it is vital to look to evidence-based insights and advanced analytics to support adaptation strategies to mitigate the exposure to these risks before they are realized.

 
Note: S&P Global Sustainable1 data comes from publicly available information, licensed datasets and its own models. Water stress refers to the combination of both reduced water availability (rainfall) and increased water demand (population, industrial and agricultural use). A business-as-usual scenario is the SSP3-7.0 scenario, in which there is limited emissions mitigation, total greenhouse gas emissions double by 2100 and global average temperatures rise by 2.8-4.6 degrees C by 2100.