A World in Disruption

In the last few years, it has seemed as if the world is spinning ever faster.

A global pandemic. A land war in Eastern Europe and increasing superpower tensions. More frequent and catastrophic weather events. Runaway inflation, stock markets falling and cryptocurrencies collapsing, with global debt reaching record levels. A worldwide energy crisis amid the ongoing energy transition. Soaring commodities prices and jammed supply chains.

The disruptions at play are reshaping the global economy, capital markets and geopolitical order for the long term. Both challenges and opportunities will emerge from this period of profound transformation. That’s why we have asked some of our most experienced research leaders to pause, reflect and look forward to 2030 to help you understand the forces that are disrupting the world and creating the future. This journal, the inaugural edition of S&P Global’s Look Forward series, is the result. Guided by S&P Global’s Research Council, these authors have drawn on their deep expertise, insights and data to examine subjects as diverse as physical climate risk, the end of the “cheap-money” era, a nearly $25 trillion funding gap to meet Paris Agreement decarbonization goals and the emergence of a new style of leadership powered by female CEOs.

This is not a forecasting exercise, but six key themes emerge: The energy transition is gaining speed but is still not proceeding fast enough to meet Paris climate targets. Investments in adaptation need to step up to protect wealth and lives from rising physical risks from climate change. The end of the era of extremely low interest rates will lead to structural changes in the economy. The world has more debt than ever before, and policymakers will need to make trade-offs to limit the risks of a debt crisis. New forms of pragmatic cooperation might emerge, where countries cooperate across spheres of mutual interest while contesting across spheres of national interest. The world is moving from the oil age to an era of batteries and electrification amid the electric vehicle and digital revolutions, leading to a commodity supercycle.

And, centrally, the next eight years will demonstrate once again the truth of the Chinese proverb: “Chaos equals opportunity.” A world in disruption is one of not only heightened risk, but also expanding opportunities. The articles in this journal are intended to help you take advantage of those opportunities. We hope you find it valuable and we look forward to hearing your feedback.

With great anticipation,