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By Swati Mathur and Pushan Sharma


Highlights

Agriculture remains vital to the Indian economy given its pivotal role in food security, economic growth and energy security. The sector is a major focus for the government, with its share in nominal GDP at 18%, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. The sector is also responsible for the livelihoods of 47% of the population and is often a critical factor in electoral decisions.

Adoption of advanced agricultural technologies such as weather-resilient crop varieties, soil regeneration and internet of things-based crop monitoring could help boost farm productivity.

New policies are required to address infrastructure issues such as irrigation, storage and supply distribution to ensure undisturbed food supplies and agricultural input to the feed and transport sectors.

India Forward

Emerging Perspectives

India’s agricultural sector is crucial to food security, employment and economic growth. Enhancing land productivity through climate change mitigation initiatives such as cultivating weather-resistant and high-yield crop varieties, along with the adoption of digital techniques and infrastructure reforms, would help sustain food supplies, improve farm incomes and boost agriculture’s contribution to India’s economy.

The evolving role of agriculture: Meeting rising demands

India needs to secure sustainable and affordable food supplies for its growing population and to enhance farm incomes. According to UN estimates, India surpassed China as the world’s most populous country in 2023. Further, population growth is likely to continue over the coming decade, underscoring the need for food selfsufficiency. Indian consumer demand has increased over the past two decades thanks to a rising population coupled with income growth and changing lifestyles. India is self-sufficient in staples, but with swelling demand, the 10-year outlook indicates a reduction or stagnation of exportable surplus for key crops from 2020–21 levels.  

Agricultural input has also been increasingly used for biofuel production to curtail India’s reliance on energy imports and to provide farmers with a new avenue for income. Mounting pressure on agriculture to address food demand, energy and feed sector needs could be eased by boosting land productivity and through infrastructure reforms. A demand increase for agricultural input without a corresponding supply increase would distort supply-demand balances and reduce exportable surplus, potentially forcing consumer sectors to import the required crops.

Confronting the challenges

Climate change and infrastructure challenges affect agriculture sector performance

India’s agriculture sector plays a vital role at home and helps the country with its foreign policy objectives. Its arable land availability is among the largest globally, comparable to the US and surpassing China and Brazil, making India one of the largest producers of wheat, rice, cotton, sugarcane and many other crops. At the same time, the country has seen inconsistent growth in agricultural output due to its vulnerability to extreme climate events.

Increasing emissions are leading to rising temperatures, with knock-on effects for climate-sensitive industries such as agriculture. Extreme heat, dry spells and uneven rain are detrimental to crop yields. Unfavorable weather disturbs crop cycles and makes it challenging to sustain the agricultural productivity necessary to meet rising demand. India is dominated by small and fragmented farms, which makes adoption of new technologies difficult. Small land holdings depend on conventional practices due to a lack of affordability and hence struggle to access water, input and formal credit, further encumbering productivity.

Uncertainty in the agriculture sector weighs on India’s economic performance as the consumer food price index contributes 39% to the total consumer price index, according to Indian government data. In response to the monsoons in 2023, the government implemented export restrictions to manage domestic demand and curb food inflation. With increasing climate risks, export controls are likely to become a familiar policy response during periods of climate stress, affecting India’s position in global agricultural trade. 

Faster inclusion of advanced agricultural technologies

With demand shifting from calories to nutrition, there is a need to repurpose some of the existing sown area under field crops for fruits and vegetables, given that India has a surplus of staples such as paddy and wheat. In future, this would require higher productivity for staples so overall production levels are unaffected. While India’s productivity for most staples is around the global average, it is far below that of China. Given that China’s average landholding is more than 30% lower than India’s, there is scope for yield enhancement as well as a critical need. India’s yields for maize and soybean fall below the global average and could be improved.

Indian yield improvements could be brought about by including weather-resilient and highyield crop varieties. In 2022, the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change decided to exempt genetically edited (GE) products derived through site-directed nuclease 1 and 2 (SDN 1 and SDN 2) techniques from the purview of regulations governing genetically modified organisms or plants (GMOs). This move has paved the way for plants derived using these techniques to be on par with their conventionally bred counterparts and could transform the development and commercialization of products leveraging biotechnology.

There is a scientific distinction between GMOs and GE crops. The latter are created using a plant’s existing set of genes and do not involve genes from other organisms. This has helped GE crops gain more public acceptance than GMOs. Innovating GE crop techniques and using hybridized crop varieties could boost yields, improve drought resilience and reduce reliance on chemical input, benefiting farmers and consumers.

Governments worldwide are becoming more receptive to GE agricultural products. The global GE seed market is expected to expand with a compound annual growth rate of about 40% by 2030. Realizing the gains to be reaped with advanced agricultural technology, the Indian government unveiled 109 high-yield crop varieties in August 2024 and is encouraging farmers to use new seed varieties. However, factors such as global harmonization on the technology, regulatory requirements, trade barriers and environmental and ethical concerns must be considered, which may slow GE crop adoption in other countries. 

Digitalization is seen as the next revolution that will boost Indian farms’ productivity. Advanced practices such as precision farming, soil regeneration and digital crop monitoring will be instrumental in enhancing agronomics. Initiatives such as the Digital Agriculture Mission and Agri Stack will be pivotal in improving farmers’ socioeconomic status. Agri Stack in particular is expected to offer improved on-the-ground assessment of farms and crops, enabling better credit assessment at the farmer level and greater access to formal credit. As it stands, only about 60% of farmers in India have access to credit from banks.

Infrastructural reforms

New policies are required to address infrastructural issues from farm to fork. The following are three key areas for reform.

  • Strong distribution and supply chain network: Essential infrastructure needs to extend right up to the farm gate. The Central Institute of Post-Harvest Engineering and Technology reported post-harvest losses of US$11 billion per year as of fiscal 2023. Improvement in farm gate infrastructure — everything from sorting and storage to distribution networks — is essential to reduce food waste.
  • Value play to increase farm income: The government has been looking for ways to increase farm income. This could be achieved sustainably by increasing value realization for produce, which would be more beneficial than reducing costs or providing direct cash transfers to farmers. There is immense scope for enhancing the value of produce, given that India’s agricultural exports, currently at US$45 billion-US$48 billion, are targeted to reach US$100 billion by 2030. Branding and market linkages enabled India to become one of the largest exporters of rice, especially basmati rice, before export curbs; there is potential for other crops as well.
  • Collective farming practices: Implementing collective farming reforms would be an effective way to share knowledge and resources as well as achieve economies of scale. Despite the launch of multiple government initiatives, irrigation remains a major challenge, with just 57% of agricultural land irrigated. Amid heat waves depleting water availability, new technologies such as drip irrigation could be adopted by groups and associations as marginal farmers would struggle to finance this kind of upgrade alone.

The agriculture sector’s vulnerability to the evolving climate scenario coupled with increasing demand for agricultural commodities may pose a challenge for India in the coming years. The Union Budget 2024–25 earmarked US$15.5 billion for boosting productivity and resilience in this fast-growing industry. Quicker adoption and spread of innovative measures such as GE crops and digitizing farming practices will be crucial in improving agricultural output and the economy. To boost agriculture performance, it is imperative to pursue strategic goals tied to the four Vs: Volatility, vulnerability, vital infrastructure and value.

  • Address volatility in agricultural commodity prices: India must tackle seasonal variations and production fluctuations that cause price instability. 
  • Mitigate crop vulnerability due to climate change: With the advent of digital farming and advances in biotechnology, crop yields can be increased.
  • Implement vital infrastructure transformations: India must fortify its agricultural supply chain and address challenges related to basic needs such as near-farm infrastructure pertaining to sorting, grading and storage. Farm irrigation and food processing facilities are also critical areas for intervention.
  • Maximize value realization for produce by diversifying the sown area under high-value crops and reducing input costs. 

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This article was authored by a cross-section of representatives from S&P Global and in certain circumstances external guest authors. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of any entities they represent and are not necessarily reflected in the products and services those entities offer. This research is a publication of S&P Global and does not comment on current or future credit ratings or credit rating methodologies.

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