S&P Global — 31 October 2024
Daily Update: October 31, 2024
The Halloween Economy is Slightly Less Terrifying
By Nathan Hunt
Start every business day with our analyses of the most pressing developments affecting markets today, alongside a curated selection of our latest and most important insights on the global economy
In recent years, inflation on inputs such as cacao and raw sugar and increasing labor costs drove significant increases in the price of Halloween candy for adults. (For kids, by tradition, Halloween candy is free.) In 2022, Halloween candy input costs increased 14%, and they rose a further 6% in 2023. But candy prices have moderated along with other forms of inflation. Prices are expected to rise only 0.9% in 2024.
“Headlines have been dominated by the surging costs of inputs,” Michael Zdinak of S&P Global Market Intelligence said on a recent episode of "The Decisive" podcast focused on Halloween sales. “The cacao that is used in chocolate manufacturing and raw sugar is up 12% and 50% year over year. And that has candy makers really creeped out. Margins are lower, sales are slowing, and it’s not a fun time to be in that business.”
Higher prices are eating into margins for candy manufacturers, which is driving a shift toward more nonchocolate candies. While most candy sold in the US is produced in the US, inputs such as cacao and raw sugar are imported. The US imported 1.56 million metric tons of chocolate bars and sugar candy in the 12 months to July 31, 2024 — worth $7.46 billion. Spending on Halloween candy is expected to grow 3.5% in 2024, hitting a record $4.1 billion. This comes out to about $30.89 per household.
Of course, Halloween candy is not the only product sold for this holiday. So far this year, the equivalent of about 16,000 shipping containers full of Halloween costumes and decorations have been imported into the US. The threat of a recent port strike in the US forced Halloween retailers to stock up on costumes and décor earlier than normal.
“When we look at total inbound supply chain activity in terms of Halloween products, then actually 2024 is a record high,” Chris Rogers, head of supply chain research at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said on the same episode of “The Decisive” podcast. “2023 was quite weak. There had been a period of destocking, a reduction in inventories by retailers generally. But year over year, imports of Halloween products, aside from candy, that includes clothing and decoration and that sort of stuff, that was up by around 19%.”
Based on a keyword analysis of shipping data, trends for costumes start to emerge. The good news is that imports of clown costumes are down by a third compared to last year, while pet costumes are up significantly.
Overall, the Halloween economy is strong due to consumer spending on discretionary purchases. Purchases on lower-ticket items have grown 5% this year. This positive trend makes Zdinak more optimistic about the coming holiday season and next year.
Today is Thursday, October 31, 2024, and, and here is today’s essential intelligence.
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—Read the article from S&P Global Commodity Insights
Global M&A by the Numbers: Q3 2024
Global M&A activity saw positive signs in Q3 as inflation continued to decline, credit conditions improved with central bank rate cuts and equity markets posted strong year-to-date returns. Deal counts held steady at 9,141 (+6% over Q3’23), in line with the median number of deals per quarter over the last six quarters at 9,114.
—Read the article from S&P Global Market Intelligence
Asia-Pacific Banks' Debt Issuance Hits Lowest Monthly Level For 2024
Asia-Pacific banks' debt issuance plunged to the lowest monthly level for 2024 in September following a busy few months. Banks in Asia-Pacific issued $15.03 billion in debt securities in September, compared to $13.03 billion a year ago, according to data compiled by S&P Global Market Intelligence on a best-efforts basis. The September aggregate, while higher than that of September 2023, was down from the month before, when banks' debt issuance volumes grew around 18% year over year.
—Read the article from S&P Global Market Intelligence
Lower US Duties On Shrimp Bullish For Ecuador Market, But Challenges Remain: Market
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—Read the article from S&P Global Commodity Insights
Eni, BP Drilling For Oil Onshore Libya After 10-Year Hiatus: NOC
European energy majors Eni and BP have resumed onshore exploration activities in Libya after a 10-year hiatus, the country's National Oil Corporation said, as the key sector continues to strengthen following a recent shutdown. "Italian company Eni and British company BP have resumed their exploration activities in Libya after stopping drilling operations in the onshore area since 2014," the state-owned company said in a statement on X on Oct. 26.
—Read the article from S&P Global Commodity Insights
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The US wireless industry has largely reached the point of saturation, making continued growth difficult. As carriers like Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile report third-quarter results this week, S&P Global Market Intelligence Kagan analyst Lynnette Luna talks us through where future wireless service and device revenue increases will come from in the next decade — whether that is additional lines for individuals with personal and professional phones, 6G services or the introduction of AI-enabled devices and services.
—Listen and subscribe to the podcast from S&P Global Market Intelligence
On-Demand Webinar: US Election: Calculating The Impact On The Automotive Ecosystem
As the 2024 US election approaches, uncertainty looms over the automotive industry. Significant shifts in policy — including regulations, incentives and tariffs — could be coming, depending on election outcomes. So how can businesses prepare for what's next? In this 20-minute webinar, S&P Global Mobility experts will show you how you can assess the potential impact of different election scenarios on your company and the automotive ecosystem.
—Watch the on-demand webinar from S&P Global Mobility