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S&P Global — 20 November 2024

Daily Update: November 20, 2024

US Auto Insurance Rates Continue to Increase, But Less So

Start every business day with our analyses of the most pressing developments affecting markets today, alongside a curated selection of our latest and most important insights on the global economy

American car culture comes with a price tag. In recent years, auto insurance costs have increased rapidly. The average calculated increase in auto insurance for US drivers was 12.0% in 2022 and 16.4% in 2023. This year, the calculated weighted average effective rate change for private auto insurance is up 7.2%. While having the lowest increase in several years is relatively good news for US drivers, those increases have not been evenly distributed across the country.

Drivers in North Carolina are in the unique position of having a calculated effective rate decrease of 0.1% in 2024. Several of the country's largest private auto underwriters, including State Farm Mutual Automobile Insurance Co., Farmers Insurance Group of Cos. and the United Services Automobile Association, have either decreased or will lower their renewal rates in North Carolina in 2024.

Conversely, drivers in New Jersey will see their rates increase an average of 17.5%. Seven other states will see a double-digit increase in 2024: Washington (16.3%), California (14.0%), New York (13.1%), Nevada (12.7%), Connecticut (11.9%), Delaware (11.1%) and Michigan (11.1%).

Berkshire Hathaway Inc.'s Geico Corp. has begun lowering rates in 20 states, including Kansas, Tennessee and Utah, due to dramatically improved underwriting results in 2024. But Geico is also boosting rates in 16 states, including Massachusetts, Minnesota and New Jersey.

Most US state governments provide regulatory oversight of auto insurance rates to protect consumers from excessive, inadequate or discriminatory rates. When a car insurance company wants to raise its rates, it must make a rate filing that includes data on loss trends, replacement costs and profits. While not all states report numbers on rate filings, an S&P Global Market Intelligence analysis found significant approved commercial auto insurance rate hikes this year in Texas, Virginia, Utah, Washington, Pennsylvania and North Carolina.

The Allstate Corp. accounted for four of the 10 most notable personal auto premium increases approved in the third quarter of 2024, with a significant hike of 18.7% affecting close to 485,000 policyholders in New York. Farmers Insurance Group of Cos. received approval for a 7% rate increase in California. Liberty Mutual Fire Insurance Co. received a 41.6% rate hike in California, surpassed only by an Allstate subsidiary's 42.2% rate hike in the state. Insurers in Texas also secured approval for three rate hikes in excess of 15%.

Today is Wednesday, November 20, 2024, and here is today’s essential intelligence.

COP16 Insights: How Latin America Can Help the Private Sector Address Climate Change and Biodiversity Loss

In late October the private sector gathered in Cali, Colombia, for the UN’s COP16 biodiversity conference — including several events hosted by S&P Global Sustainable1 that explored the integration of biodiversity and climate in corporate decision-making. Nature-based climate solutions are not merely aspirational; companies across Latin America are implementing them at scale, demonstrating viable options for considering biodiversity in energy transition and climate resilience.

—Read the article from S&P Global Sustainable1

CEE Brief: Growth Will Decelerate, but the Outlook Isn't Bleak

Per capita growth in 11 Central and Eastern European (CEE-11) outpaced that in many other emerging markets (EMs) globally in the years before the COVID-19 pandemic. Average real GDP per capita in CEE-11 countries increased by over 4.2% annually over 2014-2019 and was only surpassed by growth in Asian EMs. Yet S&P Global Ratings projects CEE-11 countries' growth will decline to 2.8% or below over the medium term. This could add pressure to the region's already strained public finances.

—Read the article from S&P Global Ratings

S&P/ASX 200 High Dividend Index: Q3 2024 Performance Attribution

The S&P/ASX 200 High Dividend Index seeks to measure the performance of the 50 companies with the highest 12-month forecast dividend yield from the S&P/ASX 200. Historically, the index has consistently delivered higher-than-market dividend yield and long-term outperformance against its benchmark. From July 2011 to September 2024, the index had an average trailing 12-month gross dividend yield of 5.5% and an annual excess return of 1.8% compared with the S&P/ASX 200.

—Read the article from S&P Dow Jones Indices

Credit FAQ: How Would China Fare Under 60% US Tariffs?

President-elect Trump has proposed applying a 60% tariff on all Chinese goods imported to the US. S&P Global Ratings views this as an unlikely, maximalist scenario that would have steep consequences for the Chinese economy and an array of sectors. In this thought exercise, it is only considering direct effects on the Chinese economy and selected sectors. The Chinese government could implement targeted stimulus in response, or other countermeasures that would ease the pain.

—Read the article from S&P Global Ratings

Trump's Oil and Gas Friendly Energy Secretary Pick Seen as 'Fantastic' in Middle East

US President-elect Donald Trump's selection of oil industry veteran Chris Wright as energy secretary will likely be welcome in the Middle East where hydrocarbons dominate its economies, with one Saudi government official describing the nomination to S&P Global Commodity Insights on condition of anonymity as "fantastic." However, if US oil production increases under the Trump administration, that could complicate the OPEC+ alliance's desire to raise its own output without causing a sell-off in prices, said Kamil al-Harami, an independent oil analyst and former executive for state-owned Kuwait Petroleum Corp.

—Read the article from S&P Global Commodity Insights

Listen: MediaTalk | Season 2 | Ep. 39: Who is Winning as Legal Sports Betting Grows in the US?

Dive into the dynamic world of sports betting with the latest episode of MediaTalk. Join host Mike Reynolds as he chats with Dave Forman, vice president of research at the American Gaming Association, to explore the rapid evolution of legal sports betting since the Supreme Court's pivotal 2018 decision. With 39 states now embracing this booming industry, discover how Missouri's recent legalization could impact the market and the anticipated revenue growth as we head into a busy sports season.

—Listen and subscribe to the podcast from S&P Global Market Intelligence

Webinar: Climate Science Through The Eye Of Hurricane Helene (Nov. 21, 2024)

As extreme weather events become increasingly frequent and severe, the need for effective disaster resilience strategies has never been more urgent. In this upcoming webcast, we’ll hear perspectives from weather, climate science and disaster response experts who live and work in the areas hardest hit by Hurricane Helene. Join us as we explore how to leverage climate data, improve modeling of compound and cascading events and understand the short- and long-term impacts of climate change as we face back-to-back disasters around the globe.

—Register for the webinar from S&P Global Sustainable1


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