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S&P Global — 19 November 2024
By Nathan Hunt
Start every business day with our analyses of the most pressing developments affecting markets today, alongside a curated selection of our latest and most important insights on the global economy
Large pension funds and university endowments have increased their allocated levels of investment in private equity in recent years. During the era of lower-for-longer interest rates, many large institutional investors looked outside of traditional asset classes to increase their rates of return. Private equity funds, which benefited from lower-cost capital, were attractive places to invest as they outperformed other asset classes. Interest rates have increased, cooling the deal environment that powered higher returns, but institutional investors have maintained high allocations to private equity, even as some market observers question whether private equity’s returns on paper will translate into actual value creation.
The investment management companies for Harvard and the University of Texas/Texas A&M have the highest allocations to private equity among those endowments that share such data. The University of Texas/Texas A&M's investment arm has allocated 30% of its assets to private equity, with US$22.19 billion in committed capital. Harvard’s investment arm has allocated 39%, with US$19.77 billion committed.
Pension funds are also allocating large percentages to private equity. The top 20 global pension funds with the largest dollar allocation to private equity have invested US$707.60 billion in 2024. The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board has allocated 24.6% of its assets, or about US$143.86 billion, to private equity. Most of that has been committed to buyout funds, primarily in North America. The California Public Employees' Retirement System and the California State Teachers' Retirement System have also allocated tens of billions to private equity.
While allocations to private equity from pension funds remain high, the actual committed capital lagged in the first and second quarters, although the shortfall was not large. According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, pension funds targeted an allocation to private equity of US$276.4 million at the median in the first quarter, but the actual median allocation was short at US$272.8 million. In the second quarter, the median target allocation was US$279.9 million, and the median actual allocation was US$269.7 million. These shortfalls can be explained by the fact that allocation targets are often approximated since calls for capital from private equity funds cannot be predicted with absolute accuracy.
While university endowments were initially slow to invest in alternative assets, they have since become the largest allocators to such investments as a percentage of total assets under management, according to Paul Sinthunont, Preqin's head of asset allocation research. Much of the allocation to private equity for endowments has come at the expense of hedge funds that have underperformed in comparison, net of fees. However, the higher returns from private equity have raised questions among market observers.
"Is it a real exit that has led to a distribution to a [limited partner] or is it something else [such as net asset value] loans or dividend recapitalizations?” asked Sinthunont. “If it's an exit, was it due to selling the best assets too early?"
Today is Tuesday, November 19, 2024, and here is today’s essential intelligence.
In this month’s update, S&P Global Sustainable1 looks at a new guide issued by the International Sustainability Standards Board (ISSB) to help companies implement its standards, a new climate reporting law in Australia and Hong Kong’s proposals for its sustainability reporting framework.
—Read the article from S&P Global Sustainable1
One in five Americans is expected to be 65 years old or older by 2030 as the population of the US continues aging. Projected demographics show that the country's population will be roughly 337.6 million in 2025 and will then increase 2.4% to exceed 345.7 million in 2030, according to data from Claritas Pop-Facts 2024. The 65-and-over segment is expected to continue on an upward trajectory. Projections show the demographic having the fastest expected growth rate among the groups, expanding 14.2% to comprise 71.6 million individuals in 2030 from 62.7 million in 2025. The segment is expected to make up 20.7% of the population by 2030, up from 18.6% in 2025.
—Read the article from S&P Global Market Intelligence
Financial markets in the “Roaring ‘20s” (of the 21st century, that is) have been dominated by surging equity markets and bouts of volatility caused by a global pandemic, inflation, geopolitical upheaval and a technology sector that has driven equity markets to all-time highs. Throughout this period, balanced strategies have been able to reap the rewards — with commodities topping the performance charts. For example, either gold or broad commodities have led all asset classes in four of the past five years.
—Read the article from S&P Dow Jones Indices
The European battery industry is grappling with significant challenges hampering its competitiveness and progress toward self-sufficiency. Ten planned battery factories have been canceled in Europe since 2018 to the first half of 2024. These cancellations, alongside the anticipated battery demand growth, point to a projected 72% undersupply to electric vehicle demand alone, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. With domestic production unable to meet nearly three-quarters of the demand, Europe will be forced to continue relying heavily on imports.
—Read the article from S&P Global Commodity Insights
In the latest episode of Energy Evolution, hosts Dan Testa and Taylor Kuykendall analyze the energy transition implications of Donald Trump's return to the presidency and the Republican control of Congress. They discuss potential shifts in energy policy, including anticipated deregulation that may benefit traditional energy sources while slowing the momentum for renewable initiatives. Key topics include the future of the Inflation Reduction Act, the outlook for offshore wind projects and the evolving landscape for hydrogen and nuclear energy.
—Listen and subscribe to the podcast from S&P Global Commodity Insights
Explosive demand for data center capacity is powering potential possibilities for power generators, electric utilities, midstream gas companies and other sectors exposed to the trend — while introducing financial pressures from increased capital expenditures; the risk of backlash against power price increases; and negative environmental and sustainability impacts.
—Read the article from S&P Global Ratings
As extreme weather events become increasingly frequent and severe, the need for effective disaster resilience strategies has never been more urgent. In this upcoming webcast, we’ll hear perspectives from weather, climate science and disaster response experts who live and work in the areas hardest hit by Hurricane Helene. Join us as we explore how to leverage climate data, improve modeling of compound and cascading events and understand the short- and long-term impacts of climate change as we face back-to-back disasters around the globe.
—Register for the webinar from S&P Global Sustainable1