Daily Update: April 23, 2024

Start every business day with our analyses of the most pressing developments affecting markets today, alongside a curated selection of our latest and most important insights on the global economy.

Global Economy on the Upswing

The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is widely considered the most accurate indicator of economic activity available. It is a survey of supply chain managers across multiple industries weighted by contribution to GDP and includes multiple questions about business conditions. The ultimate PMI score is a number between 1 and 100. Any score above 50 indicates expansion, while any score below 50 indicates contraction. According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, the global PMI score is 52.3, up from 52.1 in February.

Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, analyzes PMI data for the company. According to his analysis, the PMI score for March represents a nine-month high, indicating a sustained and broad-based recovery across sectors and geographies. 

Emerging markets experienced growth for the 15th straight month. India has been leading emerging markets, and that trend continued in March with the sharpest expansion since July 2010. Brazil also experienced strong growth.

In developed markets, manufacturing output increased for the third straight month. Business growth was strongest in the US and UK, but the eurozone also saw modest growth in March. US manufacturing growth is leading the way, with a headline PMI for the US at 51.9. A strong upturn in new orders indicates a well-established, broad-based economic expansion in the US. Forward-looking indicators point in a positive direction for future expansion. However, Canada was an outlier among developed economies, experiencing contraction in March.

Global jobs growth hit a seven-month high in March due to higher payroll numbers in the services sector, though the positive news on employment must be balanced against above-target inflation in many economies. According to S&P Global PMI data, the average prices of goods and services have increased for the second straight month. Strong employment and payroll numbers tend to drive strong demand, and manufacturers and suppliers haven’t been shy about passing on higher costs to consumers. The steepest rise in prices in March was recorded in the consumer goods-producing sector. Inflation in that sector hit a 16-month high.

Today is Tuesday, April 23, 2024, and here is today’s essential intelligence.

- Written by Nathan Hunt.

Economy

CreditWeek: How Does Iran’s Attack On Israel Affect Credit Conditions And Sovereign Ratings?

Iran's unprecedented military action against Israel raises the risk of a sharp escalation in the conflict, which heightens the risks that geopolitical tensions may have on global credit conditions and tests the limits of our base-case assumption underpinning sovereign ratings in the region.

—Read the article from S&P Global Ratings

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Capital Markets

Your Three Minutes In Banking: Commercial Real Estate Isn't Worrying CEE Banks

Some banks in Western Europe and the US are under pressure from commercial real estate (CRE) exposures, yet across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) there is little reason to expect that banks will suffer material credit losses from CRE portfolios. S&P Global Ratings attributes that to structural factors in CEE markets, real estate companies' generally sound performance and the region's positive economic environment. CEE banks have played their part too, by limiting exposure to riskier CRE projects and maintaining their domestic focus.

—Read the article from S&P Global Ratings

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Global Trade

Asian Refiners Assess Logistics Costs On Edgy Geopolitics, Fret Less Over Supply Risks

Asian refiners were assessing the impact of higher freight and maritime insurance fees in the wake of escalating tensions in the Middle East, and not overly worried about crude supply security, industry sources said April 19. Feedstock management sources and industry analysts in South Korea, Japan, China and Thailand indicated that Iran-Israel conflict itself is not East Asia's political concern in reality, while it is highly unlikely that Middle Eastern crude production, supply and tanker flows to the Far East would be disrupted by the tense geopolitics.

—Read the article from S&P Global Commodity Insights

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Sustainability

Listen: What Companies Are Doing To Address The Plastic Pollution Problem

ESG Insider is continuing its series on plastic with a look at steps some companies are taking to address the growing plastic pollution problem. The ESG Insider podcast launched the series ahead of international plastic treaty talks taking place in Ottawa, Canada April 23-29. More than 170 countries will gather to negotiate a legally binding instrument on plastic pollution, with a view to agreeing on a global treaty by the end of 2024.

—Listen and subscribe to ESG Insider, a podcast from S&P Global Sustainable1

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Energy & Commodities

Feature: India's Wheat Stocks Hit 16-Year Low As Record Sales, Free Distribution Raise Supply Concerns

India's wheat stocks in state-run inventories depleted to a 16-year low as the central government sold record quantities to augment domestic supplies and rein in rising prices amid poor crop yields during two previous seasons. Wheat stocks in government warehouses were at 7.5 million mt at the start of April, down from 8.4 million mt a year ago, an official at the Food Corporation of India told S&P Global Commodity Insights. Over the past decade, wheat stocks on April 1 averaged 16.7 million mt.

—Read the article from S&P Global Commodity Insights

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Technology & Media

Listen: MediaTalk | Season 2 Ep.9: How Consumers Split Their Dollars, Time Among Streaming Services

In this episode, MediaTalk host Mike Reynolds sits down with S&P Global Market Intelligence Kagan analyst Brian Bacon, who sits on the Consumer Insights team. Together, they talk about how consumers are navigating the ever expanding number of streaming services. While the major streamers like Netflix, Disney+ and Amazon Prime still dominate, viewers also have a growing number of FAST services to choose between. How are streamers differentiating? What are consumers really watching? And, the big question, how many streaming services is too many? Using Kagan's consumer survey data, Brian answers all these questions and more.

—Listen and subscribe to MediaTalk, a podcast from S&P Global Market Intelligence

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