Daily Update — April 2, 2025
TPM Hot Topics; EU Economic Outlook; and Sustainability Amid Geopolitical Changes
Today is Wednesday, April 2, 2025, and here’s your curated selection of essential intelligence on global markets from S&P Global. Subscribe to be notified of each new Daily Update.
Global Trade
Listen: Hot Topics in Shipping and Supply Chains: Tariffs, Taxes and More
In this episode of “The Decisive Podcast,” host Kristen Hallam discusses the hot topics from the recent TPM transpacific maritime conference with Mark Szakonyi, executive editor of The Journal of Commerce, a part of S&P Global, and Chris Rogers, head of supply chain research at S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Szakonyi and Rogers provide insights on the effects of proposals by the US government, such as tariffs, the innovative Gemini shipping model and what to expect at the The Journal of Commerce’s upcoming Breakbulk & Project Cargo Conference.
Get comprehensive supply chain intelligence with S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Supply Chain Console.
Economy
Economic Outlook Eurozone Q2 2025: A World In Limbo
The eurozone’s GDP growth for 2025 is expected to be modest, with a revised forecast of 0.9%, down from the previous estimate of 1.2%. This adjustment is attributed to rising uncertainty and increased US tariffs on European goods, which are anticipated to negatively affect demand. Analyses suggest that uncertainty will have a more significant effect on GDP than the tariffs themselves. However, starting in 2026, fiscal stimulus initiatives from Germany and the EU aimed at bolstering infrastructure and defense spending are projected to stimulate GDP growth.
Inflation forecasts for the EU were adjusted to 2% for 2026, slightly higher than the previous estimate of 1.8%. The European Central Bank is anticipated to begin raising interest rates in the latter half of 2026 following an expected rate cut to 2.25% in June 2025. The euro is projected to gradually appreciate toward 1.13 against the US dollar by 2027, contingent on the Federal Reserve initiating rate cuts by the end of 2025. Despite low unemployment, the bloc’s labor market remains under scrutiny due to real wages increasing faster than productivity.
Energy Transition & Sustainability
Sustainability Quarterly First-Quarter 2025 Edition: Charting the course
The first quarter of 2025 has highlighted significant changes in the geopolitical and policy environment, particularly concerning sustainability issues such as the low-carbon energy transition and physical climate risks. While these topics remain crucial on corporate agendas, many stakeholders are delaying their implementation timelines to prioritize pressing needs such as the energy demands of the AI sector, reindustrialization efforts, and ensuring energy security and affordability.
This edition of S&P Global Sustainability Quarterly emphasizes the importance of data in managing sustainability risks and opportunities. New remote-sensing technologies are uncovering previously underestimated methane emissions from oil and gas operations, prompting companies to adjust their estimates and address methane leaks. Many organizations view climate transition and physical risks as critical issues that affect their internal value creation and external stakeholder relationships.
Register for S&P Global Sustainable1’s upcoming webinar, Beyond ESG at the Intersection of Climate and Economic Metrics.
In case you missed it
- Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the world's largest lender by assets, expects pressure on its net interest margin to ease as it prepares for more stable interest rates in 2025.
- South Korea's crude imports hit an 18-month low in February as sluggish economic activity dampened fuel demand and the refining industry sought to optimize margins by sourcing discounted spot cargoes amid tariff hikes and a narrow Brent-Dubai price spread.
- March 2025 US auto sales are projected to rise to over 1.45 million units as consumers and automakers try to get ahead of tariffs.
Upcoming events
- Moneyball: The impact of sports media rights on the US video market | April 3 (Webinar)
- Latin America Spotlight: Corporate and Infrastructure Ratings | April 8 (Webinar)
- Sustainable1 Summit 2025 | April 30 (In-person: London) and June 26 (In-person: Singapore)