Latin American Equity Markets Struggled to Stay Positive during Q3 amid Broader Global Equity Market Rally

This article is reprinted from the Indexology blog of S&P Dow Jones Indices.

In Q3 2020, we saw a continuation of the technology-led global equity market rebound with the S&P 500® up 8.9%, the S&P Europe 350® up 4.3%, and the S&P Pan Asia BMI up 8.9%, while the S&P Developed Ex-U.S. BMI and the S&P Emerging BMI were up 6.3% and 9.0%, respectively. The story was different in Latin America, where the equity market has little exposure to technology-driven companies, though some markets benefited from the boom in mining stocks.

Overall, Latin American equities remained flat (-0.2%) in USD terms, as measured by the S&P Latin America BMI, a broad, regional index designed to measure the performance of 289 stocks from Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru.  However, the S&P Latin America 40, representing the 40 largest (by market cap) and most liquid stocks, dropped a full 2.0% for the quarter amid the continued ravaging of COVID-19 on public health and the local economy.

On the economic front, S&P Global Ratings’ analysts recently reported¹ that Latin America is in the middle of a recovery. However, the 2020 GDP forecast for all countries in the region will remain contracted. Due to strong exports to China and less stringent lockdowns, Brazil’s economic contraction will be less severe than was originally forecasted, while other countries like Argentina, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru will be worse off than expected. Meanwhile, Chile is very much on target. Many variables will affect the depth and speed of the recovery as countries try to emerge from the worst pandemic in more than 100 years.

At the sector level, Information Technology, Materials, and Industrials were the winners, with positive returns of 19.1%, 15.2%, and 8.3%, respectively for Q3 2020. The worst performers were Energy, Utilities, and Financials, losing 9.1%, 6.8%, and 6.4%, respectively.

Argentina’s economy is one of the most affected in the region, but economists expect Q3 2020 to be the start of its gradual stabilization.² S&P Global Ratings has raised the country’s rating based on a new proposal to restructure its debt in order to avoid another sovereign default. The S&P MERVAL Index gained 7% in ARS for the quarter, with the S&P/BYMA Argentina General Construction Index leading the sector board (up 42.5%); the biggest losses came from the Energy sector (-8.9%).

Brazil’s equity market was nearly flat, with the Brazil 100 Index (IBrX 100) and the S&P Brazil BMI gaining 0.0% and 0.7%, respectively. This may be a first step in the right direction, with the economy³ rebounding during Q3, primarily driven by increased demand in commodity and food exports. Not surprisingly, the S&P/B3 Momentum Index (up 8.5%) and the S&P/B3 High Beta Index (up 5.9%) did well. These smart beta indices are designed to measure stock performance while factoring in the sensitivity of the market and its movements. Likewise, the S&P/B3 Ingenius Index (up 21.0%) continued to generate extraordinary returns in the midst of the pandemic, benefiting from the performance of technology-driven stocks.

Chile is not only struggling with the pandemic, but it is also in the middle of a major potential political change, with an upcoming referendum for a new constitution. All this uncertainty is keeping the equity market in the red, with the S&P IPSA dropping 8.1% in Q3. S&P Global Rating’s economists, however, have been more optimistic about a quick economic recovery in Chile, given the “strong government support for labor markets and business.” Chile’s shining spot was in the mining sector, with the S&P/CLX Natural Resources Index gaining 9.6% in Q3.

Colombia and Peru generated strong results. The S&P Colombia Select Index gained 7.3% for the quarter. Among Peruvian equity indices, the S&P/BVL Peru Select 20% Capped Index was the best performer (up 9.3% in PEN and 7.4% in USD) for Q3, aided by the high returns of the mining sector, as the S&P/BVL Mining Index had double digit returns (up 20.6% in PEN and 18.5% in USD).

Mexico’s main equity indices were generally flat, with the S&P/BMV IPC losing 0.7% for Q3. The exception was the S&P/BMV IRT MidCap, which gained 10.1% for the same period. Looking at the sector indices, the story of Chile and Peru repeats itself, with the mining sector in Mexico yielding the highest return, with the S&P/BMV Materials Select Sector Index gaining 17.3%. Among other industries, FIBRAs in Mexico had a strong third quarter, with returns of 5.9%. As was the case in Brazil with the S&P/B3 Ingenius Index, the S&P/BMV Ingenius Index gained 12.0% for the quarter and 56.6% YTD.

It has been a long year and the end cannot come soon enough. As we enter the last quarter of 2020, let us hope for a speedy and strong recovery for Latin American economies, equity markets, and its people.

For more information on how Latin American benchmarks performed in Q3 2020, read our latest Latin America Scorecard.

¹   Elijah Oliveros-Rosen, Latin America Senior Economist. Economic Research: Latin America’s Pre-COVID-19 Growth Challenges Won’t Go Away Post-Pandemic. Sept. 24, 2020. S&P Global Ratings.

²   FocusEconomics: Argentina Economic Outlook. Sept. 15, 2020. www.focus-economics.com.

³   FocusEconomics: Brazil Economic Outlook. Sept. 15, 2020. www.focus-economics.com.

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