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About Commodity Insights
21 Jul 2022 | 13:01 UTC
By Dania Saadi
Highlights
July southern oil exports forecast at 3.3 mil b/d
Basrah Heavy July exports may hit 1.1 mil b/d
Iraq's exports rise in line with higher OPEC+ quota
Iraq's southern oil export capacity may go up to 3.35 million b/d by September from around 3.3 million b/d now, as OPEC's second biggest producer pumps more crude in line with OPEC+ unwinding output cuts, deputy director general of state oil marketer SOMO said on July 21.
"For the time being, this (3.3 million b/d) is what we believe we can achieve, taking into account not only the limitations on export capacity, but also rehabilitation activities that may cause stoppages sometimes," Ali al-Shatari told S&P Global Commodity Insights in an interview.
"This number of course might go higher, but I'm a bit conservative until I see the plans of the export facilities development go forward."
SOMO expects Basrah Heavy exports to be around 1.1 million b/d in July and Basrah Medium 2.2 million b/d, Shatari said.
Iraq exported 1.120 million b/d of Basrah Heavy in June and 2.146 million b/d of Basrah Medium, with total southern oil exports reaching 3.266 million b/d, according to SOMO figures.
Both grades are exported from Iraq's southern terminals on the Persian Gulf, which have been under expansion work for months but have faced numerous delays.
Iraq's oil production rose 1% in June from a month earlier, figures from SOMO showed July 7, as the country pumped slightly above its OPEC+ quota.
Iraq's OPEC+ quota for July is 4.580 million b/d, up from 4.509 million b/d in June.
Total oil production, including flows from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region, reached 4.515 million b/d in June, up from 4.470 million b/d in May, according to SOMO data.
Iraq has in previous months mostly pumped below its OPEC+ quota.
OPEC+ ministers on June 30 reaffirmed plans for a nominal 648,000 b/d production rise in August as questions continue to swirl about how much crude oil the group will be able and willing to pump in the months ahead.
Delegates told S&P Global at the time that ministers did not discuss any output targets beyond that, leaving that decision until their next meeting Aug. 3.