US not likely to change oil sanctions for now, despite Iran's nuclear rhetoric: experts

Iranian officials are boasting they are ever closer to having a nuclear bomb, and while the US could more strictly enforce oil sanctions or even threaten military action to deter this outcome, many experts say the Biden Administration is likely to continue its measured approach to oil sanctions for now.

"The Biden administration's preferred course of action has been diplomacy rather than sanctions, and we have seen nothing to suggest they are considering pivoting away from that strategy," said Fernando Ferreira, director of geopolitical risk service at Rapidan Energy Group.

"Rather, there's a willingness in Washington to resume indirect nuclear talks with Iran in the coming weeks to get the so-called informal nuclear understanding back on track to reduce the risk of a nuclear crisis this year," Ferreira said. Returning to informal nuclear talks could also pave the way for a new nuclear agreement with Iran if Biden wins the election, Ferreira said.

IAEA concerns

Iran's nuclear ambitions have been a key topic of discussion during the International Atomic Energy Agency's board of governors meeting March 4-8 in Vienna.

IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said March 4 that Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium continues to increase, even though the level of uranium enriched up to 60% has fallen slightly.

"Public statements made in Iran regarding its technical capabilities to produce nuclear weapons only increase my concerns about the correctness and completeness of Iran's safeguards declarations," Grossi said.

Ali-Akbar Salehi, the former head of Iran's nuclear agency, in February suggested that Iran has everything it needs to make a nuclear bomb.

And on March 7, the US delivered a statement at the IAEA board of governors meeting, saying that "we cannot allow Iran's current pattern of behavior to continue." The statement also noted that production of 60% enriched uranium has only been undertaken in nuclear weapon states.

US State Department reaction

The State Department does not preview potential sanctions, a spokesperson said March 7 in response to an inquiry about Grossi's comments and the US sanctions strategy. "That said, we are constantly evaluating our approach to Iran and finding additional ways to add pressure," the spokesperson said.

"As the president and the secretary have made clear, the United States will ensure one way or another that Iran will never obtain a nuclear weapon," the spokesperson said. "We continue to use a variety of tools in pursuit of that goal, and all options remain on the table."

If Iran decides to make a nuclear bomb, it will take about six months to do so, said David Albright, the founder and president of the Institute for Science and International Security. "We do not believe it has already made that decision," he said. But Iran's efforts may not be detected right away, he said.

The strategic situation in the Middle East has increased Iran's motivations to defy the international community and build nuclear weapons, Albright said. "A new danger is that Iran may sense a unique opportunity to build nuclear weapons due to both the United States and Israel being distracted," he said.

The current dynamic Grossi noted is not a big change from the IAEA report a few months ago, but it highlights more that nuclear diplomacy is at a standstill, said Rachel Ziemba, adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security.

"I think policies are effectively in stasis until after the US election as Iranian authorities are unlikely to be interested in what the US has to offer," she said.

Risks of international response

But Albright argued that Iran may be risking an international response.

"As Iran continues to defy the IAEA, the EU and the US will inevitably increase pressure on Iran, if not now, then in the future," he said. The current US reluctance to strictly enforce sanctions on Iran has not worked, he said, adding "The next administration, whether Biden or Trump, will sculpt a new US policy towards Iran that will likely involve more oil sanctions enforcement."

Deterring Iran against deciding to obtain nuclear weapons is not moot, Albright said. "Harsh, credible military threats can still be effective," Albright said. "If Iran actually made the decision to dash to the bomb, we would expect a full oil embargo by the US and its partners," he said.

If Tehran were to publicly acquire full nuclear weaponization, Iran's terrorist proxies like Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthi rebels would be emboldened knowing they were backed by a nuclear equipped power, said Daniel Roth, research director at the group United Against Nuclear Iran.

"For these reasons, among others, the US should aggressively enforce sanctions now rather than at the post-nuclear armed Iran stage," he said.