Russian gas flows via Ukraine set to continue as normal Nov 11: GTSOU

Russian gas flows to Europe via Ukraine at the Sudzha interconnection point were set to continue as normal on Nov. 11, with the latest nomination data from grid operator GTSOU showing expected flows at 42.2 million cu m.

Supplies have been running at around 42 million cu m/d for most of 2024 despite the ongoing war and the incursion by Ukrainian troops in August into Russia's Kursk region -- from where Russian gas passes into Ukraine.

The latest nomination data comes amid reports that Russia is planning a new counteroffensive in Kursk in the coming days.

Citing US and Ukrainian officials, the New York Times on Nov. 10 reported that 50,000 Russian and North Korean soldiers were preparing the counteroffensive.

The European gas market has been jittery since the initial August incursion into Kursk by Ukrainian troops given the potential for disruption to the remaining Russian gas flows to Europe that pass through Sudzha.

European gas prices are back close to 2024 highs, with Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessing the Dutch TTF month-ahead price on Nov. 8 at Eur42.06/MWh. The contract hit a 2024 high on Oct. 25 of Eur43.47/MWh.

The TTF month-ahead price rose above Eur43/MWh in early trade on Nov. 11, according to ICE data.

Contract expiry

The concerns over the conflict in Russia's Kursk region close to key gas infrastructure comes with the five-year transit deal between Kyiv and Moscow also set to expire anyway at the end of 2024.

It still remains to be seen whether any new arrangements could be put in place for gas to continue to flow via Ukraine to Europe from 2025, with Azerbaijan in talks to facilitate continued transit.

Ukrainian officials have repeatedly said Kyiv would, however, not extend the current agreement with Moscow.

Russian gas transit via Ukraine was as high as 117 Bcm in 2008 but fell to just 14.65 Bcm last year.

Gazprom is contracted to send 110 million cu m/d of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine in 2024 -- or a total of 40 Bcm -- before the contract expires.

But since May 2022 Gazprom has been flowing less gas than agreed in the contract and paying less than the agreement provides.

It came after Ukraine declared force majeure on its ability to transit Russian gas entering at an alternative entry point at Sokhranivka, saying it no longer had operational control of infrastructure in parts of eastern Ukraine.

In response, Gazprom said it would only pay for services rendered despite the ship-or-pay provision in the transit contract.

Naftogaz offered Gazprom the option of transferring transit to Sudzha but it was not taken up.

Up to 33 million cu m/d of Russian gas could flow into Ukraine at Sokhranivka before the force majeure.