Kerry sees lag in global climate progress, cautions on 'whole hog' natural gas approach

US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry cautioned against relying on a buildout of unabated natural gas facilties to meet countries' long-term energy needs April 20, as he discussed hurdles that recent geopolitical and economic factors are posing to global climate ambitions.

Speaking at an event on financing green development held virtually by the Center for Global Development, Kerry said efforts to advance toward climate goals were currently suffering from what he dubbed the "U-COV-in-pol" effect.

"It's Ukraine, COVID, inflation and politics, and you put these ingredients together, it's not a good mix to be able to move forward," Kerry said.

Nations representing 65% of global GDP at the UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow in November made commitments consistent with capping global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, if plans are fully carried out, Kerry said. But he conceded there has been some delay in implementation.

In the US, efforts to pass the Build Back Better legislation aimed at achieving climate goals have stalled in Congress. More recently, dealing with the Ukraine crisis and inflation has taken center stage.

"I don't think we're quite on track at this particular instance because of Ukraine, and because of the additional production that needs to take place to deal with geopolitical economic realities," Kerry said.

Still, he pushed back on some environmental group criticism that the Biden administration has put short-term interests ahead of climate goals. He asserted President Biden was working to "stabilize" economies on a temporary basis" even as he "moves significantly" to transition to a clean energy economy.

"If you don't have the consent of the governed, at least in a democracy, it is very hard to be able to move forward the way you need to," he said.

According to Kerry, the report of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change several weeks ago made "crystal clear" the potential was still there to meet goals set in Glasgow.

'Don't fall prey'

"We're behind," he said, but he suggested the global goal was attainable "if we get going now and don't fall prey to this snake oil that's being sold that suggests we can just go whole hog with gas that's unabated." He added: "For a long term, that's a problem."

In the near term, he said he would take conversion to gas-fired generation from a coal-fired plant or oil-fired plant today "in a nanosecond," because the gas offers an immediate 50% reduction in the emissions from those other sources.

But he asserted that abating the emissions from gas would be necessary beyond eight to 10 years.

"Gas will be part of low-income countries' transition," Kerry said. "I have no doubt about that. At some point, you have to have a standard that sets in and says to the gas world, 'Hey guys, you can sell, but it's got to be clean -- you've got to have a process in place, and that's going to have to be factored into the price.'"

While there are discussions about what the appropriate time period should be, at some point, "if you're going to burn gas, it's got to be completely abated," he said.

Kerry's continued caution around gas comes as the US oil and gas sector has urged the administration to offer a more full-throated endorsement of the role for US LNG exports in meeting carbon goals and in helping fill energy security needs of allies in light of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Some industry officials have welcomed the administration's more recent overtures, including the launch in March of a US-EU task force on energy security, accompanied by goals of the US supplying an added 15 Bcm of LNG to Europe in 2022, and an additional 50 Bcm/year until at least 2030.

Even as Kerry was making his remarks, the White House National Security Council was slated to meet April 20 with LNG industry officials to help chart the path toward 50 Bcm.

China cooperation

Separately, Kerry discussed challenges associated with major greenhouse gas emitters that were not at Glasgow -- China and Russia -- amid the current geopolitical tensions.

He said it would be critical to keep the climate issue separate and continue pursuing cooperation with China begun in Glasgow on methane emissions reduction, cutting unabated coal use and work related to deforestation.

"It's harder now because some of the differences of opinion between our countries have been hardened and sharpened, and that makes the diplomacy more complicated," he said. "If climate becomes one of the tools, one of the weapons in the bilateral back and forth, we're cooked. We're in serious trouble."