North America's LNG export capacity expected to double by 2027: EIA

LNG export capacity in North America is projected to reach 24.3 Bcf/d through 2027, more than doubling the region's current capacity of 11.4 Bcf/d, the US Energy Information Administration said in a Nov. 13 note.

The United States is anticipated to experience the most significant increase in LNG export capacity by 2027, reaching 9.7 Bcf/d, the EIA said.

Canada and Mexico, neither of which are currently LNG exporters, are projected to achieve respective LNG export capacities of 2.1 Bcf/d and 1.1 Bcf/d by the same year, according to the EIA.

The capacity additions that the EIA is considering result from a total of 10 new projects across the three countries.

However, the EIA's estimates regarding Mexico may no longer be entirely accurate.

The EIA considered three projects with a combined LNG export capacity of 1.1 Bcf/d, which included the 0.18 Bcf/d Fast LNG Lakach unit New Fortress previously announced it would develop in association with Mexico's state oil and gas company Pemex. New Fortress executives recently said that the project is not currently under consideration, and press reports suggest that the companies may have abandoned it due to disagreements.

The other two projects the EIA considered in Mexico are still underway. The offshore unit of the Fast LNG Altamira is expected to be online in December this year. The project consists of three units, each with a capacity to liquefy up to 0.18 Bcf/d. While the EIA's analysis suggests that exports from the two proposed onshore units could begin in 2025, a key permit from the Department of Energy that the Altamira project is awaiting would not sanction onshore facilities, the DOE previously said.

Meanwhile, the 0.4 Bcf/d first phase of Energia Costa Azul LNG terminal -- the other project considered by the EIA -- is already under construction.

In the case of the US, the EIA considered five LNG export projects currently under construction on the Gulf Coast: Golden Pass, Corpus Christi Stage III, Rio Grande and Port Arthur in Texas, as well as Plaquemines in Louisiana.

The Golden Pass terminal, Venture's Global Plaquemines and the expansion at the Corpus Christi plant are expected to come online between 2024 and 2025, based on information their developers previously released.

The EIA also took into consideration two export projects with a combined capacity of 2.1 Bfc/d that are currently under construction on Canada's west coast and will be supplied with natural gas from the country's Western region. LNG Canada, with an export capacity of 1.8 Bcf/d, is expected to begin service in 2025, while the 0.3 Bcf/d Woodfibre LNG is expected to begin service in 2027.

The 2.1 Bcf/d Coastal GasLink pipeline that will supply LNG Canada is expected to be ready to deliver commissioning gas to the facility by the end of this year, its developer said earlier this month.

Total US LNG feedgas demand is expected to average nearly 13 Bcf/d in 2023, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. That stands to increase to an average of nearly 25 Bcf/d by 2028 and an average of nearly 28 Bcf/d by 2030.

Platts assessed the FOB Gulf coast Marker at $12.12/MMBtu Nov. 13, up 51 cents on the day.

Platts is part of S&P Global Commodity Insights.