COP28: Global fossil fuel CO2 emissions set to jump to record highs in 2023

Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels are projected to rise to an all-time high in 2023, increasing about 1.1% from the previous year, climate scientists said during the UN Climate Change Conference Dec. 5.

This comes as global leaders fret over whether clear language over the phaseout of fossil fuels should be included in the negotiated text during COP28.

Emissions from energy combustion and industrial processes are estimated to be as high as 36.8 billion mtCO2e in 2023, according to the latest report from the Global Carbon Budget project.

"Action to reduce carbon emissions from fossil fuels remains painfully slow," said Professor Pierre Friedlingstein of Exeter's Global Systems Institute who led the study. "It now looks inevitable we will overshoot the 1.5 Celsius target of the Paris Agreement, and leaders meeting at COP28 will have to agree rapid cuts in fossil fuel emissions even to keep the 2 C target alive."

Regional divide

Geographically, the trends were in steep contrast. Fossil CO2 emissions fell 7.4% in Europe and 3% in the US, with an expected sharp rise observed in India of 8.2% and China 4%. India and China are both increasingly reliant on coal for power generation, and this was reflected in the data by sector.

Global emissions from coal (1.1%), oil (1.5%) and gas (0.5%) are all projected to increase, the report said.

However, total global CO2 emissions, which include emissions from fossil fuels plus land use change, were poised to be 40.9 billion mtCO2e in 2023, similar to 2022 levels.

The increase in global emissions this year was driven by China recovering from COVID-19 restrictions, Friedlingstein added at a press conference at COP28 Dec. 5. If there is no increase in China's emissions next year, global emissions may have peaked, he said.

This was because emissions from land use change such as deforestation are projected to decrease slightly but are still too high to be offset by current levels of reforestation and afforestation, the data showed.

The Global Carbon Budget brings a number of scientific, climate and research institutes to help provide credible, scientific information to researchers, policymakers and civil society.

Extreme weather events have been on the rise this year, with 2023 set to be the warmest year on record.

Global CO2 emissions from fires were also larger than average due to an extreme wildfire season in Canada, where emissions were six to eight times higher.

Global leaders are under pressure to accelerate their climate action plans and take concrete steps to reduce emissions at COP28, which is taking place from Nov. 30 to Dec. 12 in Dubai.